I'm looking at the market, and there's no way to sugarcoat it: when I look at the historical Bitcoin cycles, especially going back 350 to 550 days, everything is telling me that I should be selling and getting out now because this is a cycle top. If we actually manage to push to new highs from here, it will be the longest and latest cycle top we’ve ever had.
I understand why there's so much uncertainty in the price action right now. We've been going sideways for a whole year, which is practically unheard of in the third year of a bull market. I keep hearing about predictions of $150k or $200k this year, but I honestly don't see how we can jump 80% or 100% in the next few weeks. I mean, we've already had the best-performing ETFs ever, and massive institutional inflows, yet we've stalled out. Where is the next huge wave of money coming from to double the price?
I have some major concerns on the macro side:
Institutional Buyers are Hurting: The Digital Asset Treasury companies (DATs), which are some of the biggest institutional Bitcoin buyers, are getting absolutely sold off. For instance, one of them is down 97%. When the biggest buyers are seeing their stocks get dumped, that's a problem for the fresh capital needed to push Bitcoin higher.
Short-Term Bearishness: I'm seeing short-term holders capitulating, and that's not a good sign when the price is already high in the cycle.
However, the reason I'm not panicking is the extended cycle theory. The debt cycle got stretched out during the pandemic, which suggests a longer central bank cycle that could push our top out to mid-2026. While the market has priced in lower rates, we actually need the Federal Reserve to physically cut rates to allow for the necessary earnings expansion and currency creation. They are so slow, it’s unbelievable, but they are pointing in the direction of being more "dovish" by ending Quantitative Tightening (QT) and eventually cutting rates. This is key because I'm actually trading the credit cycle, not just Bitcoin, and a Fed that is cutting rates is not the environment for a bear market.
I know things like a government shutdown, which costs the economy billions, are bearish right now, but if they sort it out, GDP and Bitcoin should pick up quickly.
So, here's my plan: I'm not selling my long-term, spot Bitcoin, but I am seriously considering getting out of my leveraged trades. The whole game is just to avoid getting liquidated. We could easily drop 30% or 40% on a panic, but then the Fed will step in six weeks later, pump liquidity, and everything will go to all-time highs again. I need to hold through that. I'm staying in my trades for now because I believe the forward-looking indicators—like the ISM (Institute for Supply Management) and strong earnings upgrades—are still pointing to a fairly robust cycle. It's a critical moment, and I have to be brave and trust the macro picture.
