This video from the Benjamin Cowen channel provides an update on Bitcoin's market structure, focusing on the bull market support band and historical cycle analysis.
The analysis notes that Bitcoin has recently fallen below its bull market support band (the 20-week Simple Moving Average and 21-week Exponential Moving Average), which is not an unfamiliar position for this cycle. The speaker strongly adheres to the historical cyclical view that Bitcoin market tops occur in the fourth quarter (Q4) of the post-halving year, meaning the top is expected in the current quarter, with 2026 likely being a bear market year.
A key point of discussion is that many traditional peak indicators, such as the Pi Cycle Top indicator, have not yet signaled the extreme levels of previous cycles. The speaker suggests that the current quantitative tightening (QT) environment may be suppressing the market's extent, drawing parallels to the "Bitcoin-only rally" of 2019, which also saw rising Bitcoin dominance during a period of QT.
He emphasizes that Bitcoin Dominance is currently trending higher and predicts it will climb well above 60% as liquidity from the altcoin market rotates back into Bitcoin. The speaker advises that the most prudent investment strategy is to limit exposure to Bitcoin, as altcoins are only likely to see durable gains if Bitcoin first leads with a strong parabolic rally. If this final parabolic rally is to happen, he believes it must occur within the next two months.
The video also warns of an approaching "death cross" (the 50-day SMA crossing below the 200-day SMA). Historically, these technical events have marked a local low, which may present the last best chance for a final price surge before the cycle concludes. For the speaker, the ultimate confirmation that the bull market is over would be two weekly closes below the 50-week moving average.
