Hello everyone
After about two years of demonetization, RBI has finished in the counting of notes and found out that 99.3% Demonetized currency had been returned to the bank. On this special occasion, i would like to put my analysis on demonetization. I have analyzed its both positive and negative impact on the country. On Sep 2017 RBI said that 99% of demonetized currency has been returned to the bank and they were still counting and RBI took 1 year from sep 2017 to sep 2018 and the figure of 99% turned in to 99.3%.
Some of the people of India had estimated that 30% of cash in india is Black money and they expected that 30% of demonetized currency will not be returned to the bank.
Even SBI on DEC 2016 said that they expected that atleast RS 2.5 Lakh crore will not be returned to baking system out of 15.4 lakh crore. Even SBI was expecting that RS 2.5 Lakh crore will not be returned to banks.
So those people who have black money they will not come to return their money to banks as if they come they will match their salary record and be caught by banks .
So as per PM of India they had no options to get back their money so they will burnup their money or throw their money in the river. But Nothing happened like that 99% of demonetized currency were returned to the bank.
It means two things:
In my opinion the possibility of second option is high as Demonetization has many loop holes and they may exploit and may changed their black money into white one.
It is claimed that 16,000 cr is black money but this is not the truth, of about Rs 3300 crore of demonetized currency were stuck in Nepal and Bhutan. Most of the money are with NRI those who were unable to return their money back, some of the demonetized money were with poor people who were unable to return their money , some of thedemontized currency were found in temple.
All in all The think which was called a surgical strike on Black money had even not returned even its 1% of total amount.
It was expected that demonetization will effect a lot on fake currency but just after 2 to 3 days of demonetization the picture of 2000 rs fake currency gone viral. In fact upto June 2017 Rs 11.27 cr of Fake currency was detected. This means demonetization has zero impact on Fake currency.
It was said that it will impact on terror funding. Demonetization was estailished on 8 nov 2016 and On 19 Nov terrorist attacked indian army in assam , on 22nd nov soilders were killed in Jammu and Kashmir, ON 29th nov 7 Indian Army officers were killed in Nagrota .
It means demonetization has no impact on terror funding.
This is truth that it was semmed a good growth in cashless transaction beacbecauselack of cash but just after when the cash was available there seems a worst fall in cashless transaction. You can clearly see in given graph.
So demonetization has not affected a lot in Cashless economy.
Demonetization has increased the no of taxpayers it has increased to 14% of people who pay tax . We can see the graph for it.
Thats all in Part 1
