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From Analaysis of the Polling Data for several previous campaigns for the Republican Presidential Nominee, Donald Trump has an almost unprecedented lead. Counter to conventional wisdom Trumps numbers have only increased with the prosecution efforts against him. The Polling results from the last week of September are almost entirely predictive of the eventual nominee. No one in decades has overcome a lead of the magnitude that Donald Trump has over Ron Desantis. The most similar data is from the 1999-2000 cycle when George W. Bush and John McCain fought for the nomination, Bush went on to win the controversy marred election versus Al Gore. In the 2007-2008 cycle John McCain was able to reverse an early lead by Rudy Guiliani but the dynamics of the race were substantially different and Guiliani never achieved the commanding lead possessed by Trump.
How does this effect the remainer of the race? Starting with Ron Desantis - fundraising will get much more challenging - however some future oriented contributors will look to 2026 or 2028 when Destantis will likely run for another office. Because of Constitutional barriers Desantis is ineligble to be Trump's running mate for Vice President. DeSantis is looking very much like Ted Cruz when he ran against Trump in 2016. Desantis will need to refine his delivery and charisma before his next campaign. Nikki Haley is perhaps positioning herself for a future Senate run or a job on Cable News. Vivek Ramaswamy is an interesing candidate and could be a potential running mate or Cabinet appointee for Trump. The bottom half of the pack is largely dusty establishment Republican Candidates who are not and will not be competitive in the current political environment.
It will be interesting who emerges as viable running mates for Donald Trump. Some MAGA enthusiasts have mentioned former Arizona Governor Kari Lake, but Lake does not bring new voters to Trump so she would not be a strategic choice. The ouster of Represenative McCarthy from the Speaker's chair, indicates that the stock of establishment Republicans is in signficant decline, and Republicans aligned with Donald Trump are likely to dominate the Party at least for the next cycle. Subscribe to this channel on Hive for updates and political analysis.
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