Let's talk about the actual numbers behind what we today know as Record Signing. The RNG, Market Value, drop rates, the math behind, everything... to see how this new update is faring.
To be honest, a few days ago, before the update had gone live, I could only speculate and guess what could have happened and what numbers we could've expected from the update. But now, after having seen the update in action, I can make a better judgment about the whole stuff that is happening here. That's one reason this post is coming out a bit late - for me to speculate how things play out and guess how things will go on. (The other reason for the late post was that I needed a little break from blogging... but here we are now).
I've mentioned that Record Signing has been a balanced addition to Rising Star in my recent posts numerous times and the reason comes down to how the drop rates and the stats from the cards are designed.
| Rarity | Fans* | Drop Rate | Fans * Drop Rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| Common | 5 | 88.95% | |
| Rare | 50 | 10% | |
| Epic | 500 | 1% | |
| Legendary | 10,000 | 0.05% | |
| Total | 10,555** | 100% |
The takeaway from the table above is that the expected return for a person with average luck in the long run is 19.4475 (let's say 19.5) Fans per each mission they run!
Each mission takes 30mins and if we run 2000, we will have one of each card (assuming we're running a simulation where we get one card after (mission_done_count * drop_rate) > 100). The hardest card to get is the Legendary Mega Fan card which (again, on an average luck takes 2000 runs to achieve). A 30-min mission done 2000 times takes 41.6 (let's say 42) days to complete*.
* Assuming you have all the FC-Series Cards and keep growing your collection PLUS the fact that this simulation is a full 42-day experiment with a perfect 30-min interval between each humnan intervention - essentially, not really possible.
Previously, we concluded that every run will get you 19.5 Fans on average. In practice, you'll be mostly (88.95% of the time) getting Commons. But if you hit a couple of Epics and that Legendary, the tables will turn - it all depends on when and how often you do it. You'd have to be lucky to get that Legendary in a few days - hence the name Legendary.
But the actual market value of running Reord Signing, using the floor price (which is ~60SB/Fans), will be (19.5 * 60) and that is 1170 Fans in just 30mins on average!
But let's not forget that it needs you to hit your Epics and Legendaries quota for all those good numbers to come true!
But in the calculation above, I just used the market floor for Fans (which mainly consists of Commons and Rares found in the Packs!)
We're talking about cards achieved after 30 mins of no XP AND having grinded a decent number of FC Cards! Surely they'll feth a better priec than the market floor...
I just searched the market stream for FA1 Card and, boy, they've fetched REAL good prices up until now. The current floor for FA1 is 3K SB, and it was merely 300 SB in our calculations. Moreover, it has gone up to 10K on the first day! (which I don't really understand considering how everyone can get a guaranteed FA1 card)
There has been quite a few FA1 sales, so I won't bother posting the pic for that, but as for the other cards we have:
And, no FA4 so far. (You can strike a goldmine just from those numbers from FA2 and FA3!)
Well, this method just occured to me while writing this article and it's a simple one - liquidating the FA1 cards! That FA1 (that has 5 Fans) could be sold for 3K SB(its floor) and that 3K SB could then be spent to buy Fans from the market (using 60SB/Fan floor price), it'll be 50 Fans from a 30-min mission! (Practically x10-ing your fan gain from the mission)
Now, this method works for a very limited time as FA1 cards are easy obtained compared to the other ones and the market and as easily become saturated (it's already happening), so if you want to benefit from this, then you gotta hurry!
But, fear not as FA1 market gets saturated, FA2 will become the next target and you could start farming for them. The profit IS there and it's significant. And just as how great it is, it could become saturated as fast! So, a temporary bonus/event to give an edge to Rising Star Ninjas!
Keep farming, Stars! And more importantly: Have fun doing so!
Cheers~~
