Currently, I believe the mining costs for Bitcoin are about $3,100. So on the halving, the costs will be just above $6,200 and will become its base price. That said, I think the run up to the halving will increase the price of Bitcoin, but not initiate the start of a new bull run - famous last words.

All FIAT currencies are being debased and it's a race to the bottom. Bitcoin and a few other ALT coins are probably the future, in my opinion.

Thanks for your post, it was very thought provoking.