As I read this I thought of the tradeoff a parent makes every day. Optimal risk would mean locking the child away. Not letting the child go to camp. Not letting the child drive, go out with friends, travel. Optimal risk...as close to zero as possible, would destroy the child.
There is a tradeoff, a balance? There is a cost to every freedom we give a child, and a cost to every freedom we deny the child.
This may sound irrelevant to you (are you a parent?), but I found making those decision, having that responsibility, the most excruciating part of parenting.
RE: The optimal number of deaths