Great blog. Necessary blog. I would like to suggest a bit of a change in the analysis of uncertainty. I would suggest that uncertainty really began on January 20, 2025.

It is a geopolitical fact that everything the president of the United States does affects the rest of the world. I don't like that fact, but it's true. Very soon after he took office, Donald Trump started throwing monkey wrenches into established order. The markets loved it,because his actions in the beginning were obviously pro-business. However, the constant drumbeat to take down the Chairman of the Fed, the early threats to take over territory (Greenland, Panama, even Canada), the disquiet in the streets as Ice marauds through cities, the assault on the judiciary--all of it has led to a sense of uncertainty, of insecurity among many who are not wealthy. Then the tariffs. Now we have wars of aggression. It's only been a year. The effects of a year of uncertainty are already dramatic. Traditional alliances collapsing. Are Russia and China rising in importance as U. S. volatility increases and its economic viability decreases? What of our debt (growing by the second), what of the dollar? In modern times, certainly since WWII, I don't think the world, has been in a less certain circumstance. The man leading the U.S. seems to be erratic--in the view of many. He seems to have a poor grasp of history, and not even an approximate understanding of the current geopolitical challenges.

The stock market is a symptom of a nation in trouble. Are we in crisis yet? I don't know, but I think a lot of very smart people are worried.