RE: RE: The Great Shrink
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RE: The Great Shrink

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Interesting video. My son has been talking to me about the declining Yen. Tried to explain how monetary policy was accelerating the Yen decline. Your blog fills in some of the background to his discussion.

Looked up immigration as a possible way to address the population decline. From the Harvard International Review:

While the Japanese government and people might not be against immigrants, Japan could provide them with better support. Helping immigrants integrate into the Japanese society and economy is essential for not only recruitment, but also for the wellbeing and economic security of immigrants. These goals, in turn, are critical to solving Japan’s population crisis and consequent labor shortages. Immigrants could play a pivotal role in funding the ever-expanding social security net and fueling the country’s economy—if they are given the opportunity and assistance to succeed.

Can't help thinking about our own immigration issues in the U.S. One way we have escaped declining populations experienced by other countries is by receiving so many immigrants. How do the anti-immigrant people hope to compensate for the loss of this population going forward, if their anti-immigrant aspirations are realized?

From the U.S. Census:

Population growth in the United States has slowed significantly with an increase of only 1.8 million, or 0.5%, between July 1, 2024, and July 1, 2025, according to the new Vintage 2025 population estimates released today by the U.S. Census Bureau.

and

“The slowdown in U.S. population growth is largely due to a historic decline in net international migration, which dropped from 2.7 million to 1.3 million in the period from July 2024 through June 2025,” said Christine Hartley, assistant division chief for Estimates and Projections at the Census Bureau. “With births and deaths remaining relatively stable compared to the prior year, the sharp decline in net international migration is the main reason for the slower growth rate we see today.”

From the Economic Policy Institute:

Any decline in labor force growth necessarily leads to a decline in the rate of growth of gross domestic product (GDP). GDP is the product of the number of hours worked in an economy multiplied by productivity (the average amount of output generated in an hour of work). If the number of work hours falls because the labor force shrinks, this essentially translates one-for-one into slower aggregate growth. Policymakers who do not want to see the pace of GDP growth shrink relative to the past history of U.S. growth really only have one option: allowing larger flows of immigration. Absent this, other policies to boost the U.S. labor force—while they might be wise along many margins—will not restore overall GDP growth to anywhere near its historic pace. In the rest of this policy brief, we lay out some of the larger trends in U.S. labor force growth and the implications of population aging for the future path of the labor force and economic growth.

I realized after I wrote this argument that it's good material for a blog, but I'm not in the mood to argue with anyone. Just interested in the subject and wanted to share that.

@agmoore: Interesting video. | Ecency