“I personally feel the higher each cycle goes, the less the percentage drawdown from the top each bear [market] will be. [The] amount of dollars wiped out already surpasses 2018 by a mile.”
That came out from Bluntz, a crypto dude I just followed on Twitter, who seems to be in tune with my views regarding the crypto market. I don't know if you've noticed this on yourself as well, but I personally see pretty clearly that 99% of the people I'm following on Twitter are the ones close to my biases.
Let's talk bottoms, shall we...
Because that's what the entire CT is discussing right now. What's funny is that the exact faces who came with "precise targets" for the bull market peak just about one and half years ago are now "giving advice" where the bottom might be and they all see it at under $20,000.
I've said I'm biased and my bias regarding the bottom for this bear market is $20,000. A few days ago I personally shared some bottom targets for BTC, ETH, and HIVE, these being $22,000, $800, and $0.25 respectively.
BTC has pierced through $22,000 and has even managed to dive all the way to $20,200 today, but does that make it a bottom? Probably... We don't know that yet, but what we know and what history has shown us so far is the fact that every time BTC has pierced through, or touched the 200 WMA, that marked a bottom.
With the latest move to $20,200, BTC has indeed pierced through the 200 WMA which is currently at the $22,000 level, it hasn't closed below it on the weekly, RSI is on oversold at pretty much the same level as in previous bear market bottoming times and the fear and greed index for Bitcoin is at 7 out 100.
ETH is currently valued at $1,100, but it was close to falling under $1k in the past 24 hours. Pretty close to my target, but not there yet... HIVE hasn't reached my target of $0.25 either, and it might do that, but let's have a look at the whole market from a macro perspective.
BTC is currently -69.1% down from its ATH, ETH is -77.0% and HIVE is something like 85%. Many of us are expecting BTC to correct 10% further and alts to get hit even harder JUST BECAUSE that's what happened in the past cycles. Well, in the past cycles we also had more brutal bull runs that culminated with blo-off tops for BTC. That wasn't the case for the current one.
Worth mentioning is also the amount of capital that was shredded from the market since the ATH for BTC, and we're talking over two trillion dollars. Now, I'm not saying BTC can't go lower, it might correct to $15,000 or $18,000 but I doubt that. I have analyzed my psychology recently and I have never been so doom and gloom in my entire life in crypto.
Oh wait, I guess I was feeling the same back in March 2020 as well when I was selling ETH for $150 a coin. Dumbass...
Hence, I would say the bottom is probably in, and even if that's not the case, the hard part is over. I'm not gonna 100x long leverage trade the market in any way, but I might buy a coin or two these days. It's a risk that I'm taking during a grey financial time, but in order to make money, you have to risk money.
What do you think, have we bottomed, or not?
Thanks for your attention,
Adrian