Analyzing the attitude of dumb money(retail investors) often times can offer valuable insight on where a market, in our case the crypto market could be and in this regard I've noticed something interesting lately...
Retail does not talk crypto too much.
During bullish times I am always been asked all sort of questions about crypto by fellows around me, and about my blog as well. Lately those types of discussions are almost absent and that sounds much like bottoming of the market to me.
I was asked today by an acquittance of mine a quite relevant question I'd say, and that was: when are you going to sell?
Good question, I said, because I do have a history of over four years of selling at not quite the right time, sometimes buying tops or holding underwater bags for too long. But, when am I going to sell and how am I gonna do that?
First of all, I doubt I will ever sell all my crypto holdings and be left on fiat entirely and that's due to the fact that whatever world currency we're talking about has continually depreciated against Bitcoin and most of the relevant cryptos that we have.
I am going to sell at some point and the only situation in which I would massively dump most of my positions, although not at the same time, would be something like at 20X-30X from the current value my portfolio has, that translating to lifechanging money for me. I don't see any point in settling for little because I know the potential of crypto.
Although I haven't made much money from it, over the four years I have since I bought my first coins, I have some experience in this market and I'm not selling for cheap. I've done that a few times and I regret it till this day.
I don't have any idea when I will be able to achieve that level where I'd be comfortable to sell most of my holdings, but I know what the value would be and won't take any trade other than lifechanging money. What about you?
Thanks for attention,
Adrian