The ones that have been around here(crypto markets) for a few years know that back in the beginning of 2018 nobody was talking of a bear market. It was supposed that Bitcoin would go to infinity, the drop to $6K from $20K looked like a good entry point and for the long term holders it was.
But most of us couldn't even envision a bear market following BTC's $20K top.
Now we have plenty of folks "taking the bear out" and drawing lines that would propel Bitcoin to as low as $10K this year. Something that will never probably happen again, but history has shown us that after every bull cycle the bear market has pushed BTC down to the ATH of the previous cycle.
The ATH of the previous cycle was $20K, thus the dilemma right now is whether bitcoin will correct as low as $20K and if that happens it completely invalidates any super cycle theory that I believed in for quite a while.
When looking at the chart of BTC, though, for the past year, it looks like BTC has painted higher highs and higher lows and that double top looks quite a bit weird in all the schematic.
The second top of $69,000 that occurred after BTC has climbed from its July 2021, $32,000 bottom, hasn't been reached again and the chart of the last six months or so kind of looks like a head and shoulder formation that could push BTC down to as low as $32,000, once again, or just slightly higher, if we are to respect the higher highs and higher lows.
I am no TA expert and honestly have no clue why we haven't reached $100K yet, but I doubt BTC will get to $20K either. The latest dump has been correlated with the stock market and the stock markets have corrected "thanks to the Russia-Ukraine war".
It is all uncertain imo and although I'm not taking $20K out of the equation I don't give it high chances either. What do you think, will BTC go as low as $20K this year? If yes, wen?
Thanks for attention,
Adrian