When evaluating the 1 yr log uptrend (the one that broke last week) we were looking at the candle closes - as opposed to the wicks. It's not necessarily right or wrong, it's a matter of preference; as long as you’re consistent. That means you shouldn’t connect wicks to candles and visa versa.
We used the candle close because the wick from hitting the $6k bottom was a capitulation point and the bounce was massive. We figured if we dropped below that trendline it'd be a great short opportunity, and boy were we right. There’s been 13% downside since that trendline broke. Another profitable short.
With all that said, if we use the wicks to draw the uptrend, you'll see that we're now right on it - technically the 1yr uptrend is still intact, though we’ve been in a downtrend the last 91 days...but who’s counting
What’s the cause of the recent drops in price?
At a basic level, low volume. In fact, today Bitcoin saw the least amount of volume it’s seen since late November. It’s about half of the volume average of the last 30 days. The last time volume was this low, the BTC price (and therefore marketcap) were almost exactly the same.
If we bounce of this uptrend and find consistency at this level of volume, we could finally be in for some consolidation - some sideways price action.
This is what we need to see before we can expect any major move up.
