I originally posted this as a comment to someone's option DD, but I feel like it needs more exposure to educate against a risky YOLO play.
American Airlines will recover from this, the government had shown they believe Airlines are too big to fail in 2008. However people are hastily rushing to think its gonna bounce back to its peak before the crash.
I've got news for you, it already did that and then some. Pay attention to the amount of shares available. You are facing an uphill battle to get anything from this. Travel is still heavily restricted around the globe, fuel prices skyrocketing, limited capacity. This has nothing going for it other than retail being piss poor at math trading on feels.
https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN27Q1Z8 38.5M shares offerd up in Nov 20
https://www.thestreet.com/investing/american-airlines-to-offer-up-to-1point1-billion-of-stock up to $1.1 billion in stock to be sold Jan 21
https://www.sharesoutstandinghistory.com/aal/
Jan 2018 high $58.48 473M shares outstanding
Jan 2020 Precovid crash $29.65 426M shares outstanding
Mar 2021 approx $24. 641M shares outstanding
There is your bear case. Stock is trading at 81% of precovid levels with 150% of the shares outstanding. So before you think the stock has $5 in it to reach precrash, realize its actually $9.17 above that level.
TL;DR AAL has had to dilute the hellnout their stock to stay afloat. They aren't going to go under, but don't expect it to go up. Please don't YOLO into calls on this one.
Positions: None I bought 3k shares @14 and was out @17.5 when they threatened employees with another furlough(stimulus prevented this or I believe it would have crashed already)