Short term you may be right.
Steem user growth is slowing and the price is dropping rapidly.
The trading volume in STEEM is also rather low to support the current marketcap and at 20x collateral the STEEM DOLLAR capitalization will be in trouble in your price target range. It seems 100% inflation is a bit too much to make STEEM acceptable to hold for short term trading/speculating.
However Steemit is not a model that cannot be tweaked to get the balance right. Nothing a hard fork cannot solve at this stage.
RE: Why I Want to Short Steem [Beyond Trading –part2. 08/23/2016]