We can all feel that the gas fee of Ethereum has become more and more unstable recently. Sometimes it is very high and sometimes very low. Take this month, when it rarely appears below 100 Gwei, as long as it reaches tens of Gwei, everyone will instantly Transaction confidence has risen sharply (although it is still high compared to last year), the decisive factor affecting the gas fee is still the price of ETH and the popularity of the Ethereum ecosystem.
Currently, the only way to reduce gas fees is to rely on Layer 2 applications and some DEX subsidies, but the amount of gas fees consumed in the process of depositing and withdrawing is still high, and it also earns extra fees for large households, which is very friendly, but for retail investors In general, DEX is still unattainable.
This year is a bull market. The price of ETH has continued to rise, reaching a peak of US$2042. Although there has been a significant fall after the fall, it has been unable to break through the US$2000 mark again.
On the other hand, BTC, which is also a giant, rebounded beyond 60,000 US dollars after the crash and reached a new high. Although it is a crash now, we still have to look at the essence through the phenomenon. What is the reason for this situation?
I think it can be boiled down to the following points:
1. Retail investors don’t want the price of Ethereum to be too high, because the price of ETH affects the amount of gas spent. After the first breakthrough of $2,000, the peak of the gas fee has reached an unprecedented height, and the difficulty of 1000 Gwei has also made many people retreat , So retail investors began to gather strength (similar to the GME incident), causing the price of ETH to stagnate. You can refer to recent reasons for the broader market, all of which are related to the Fed’s speech and policies.
2. Miners are used to making high absenteeism fees. The soaring gas fee caused by DeFi in September last year caused many people to enter the cryptocurrency market, and even buy mining machines and become miners. In October-November when it was quiet, they also found that when the gas fee was reduced, the transaction volume was also Reduced, worried that such a situation would affect their normal income again, so the mining pool came forward to oppose EIP-1559.
3. Bitcoin is more like gold and Ethereum is more like banknotes. Many people buy Bitcoin by hoarding there, just like storing gold; and even under the high gas fee, Ethereum is still a tool for money transfer, just like when we stay in a hotel on holidays, when we go out. I know that prices will increase during this period, but can this be reduced? Of course not, but we can choose a cheaper hotel. When a high-priced hotel is vacant, it will be rented out at a low price. The same problem applies to the price of Ethereum.
Although we have seen many big institutions buying Bitcoin and Ethereum, people only think that this is a big game, and the gas fee prevents many people from entering the market.
However, the key core of this war lies in Vitalik and the team behind him. It can be seen from last year that various DeFis began to appear in September, and retail investors were in high mood, but that was just an illusion of multi-person admission. Forget it, the amount of funds has not increased much. The real user volume skyrocketed after the National Day holiday in the United States. Everyone began to buy Ethereum, which gradually increased its price, but at the end of the GR8 donation activity, the Gas fee began to skyrocket. , Conflicts between retail investors and miners began, and Ethereum 2.0 was officially launched during this period.
This is also the case this year. EIP-1559 has become the short-lived solution, but it will not be effective until July at the earliest. Assuming that its effect meets the expectations of the public, the price of Ethereum will continue to soar because There is no need to worry about the high gas fee anymore, but if it is not reached, the user's panic will begin to erupt, and we can only wait for the advent of Ethereum 2.0.
Regarding the fork, I personally feel that it doesn't make much sense.