Canadian federal election.


It appears that the Canadian election is still very close (though the ruling Liberal Party has regained the lead). It also seems to me that Conservative Party leader Erin O'Toole has moved the CPC close to Prime Minister Trudeau's Liberals on most major issues. Almost like he is offering the electorate Trudeauism without Trudeau (and without the "woke" rhetoric).

Thus, I ask Canadian friends and other experts the following question: Which of the scenarios listed below do you predict to happen, and which would be normatively preferable:

A. Conservative majority government
B. Conservative minority government
C. Liberal majority government
D. Liberal minority government
E. Some other outcome (a coalition, the NDP somehow wins the most seats, a "hung" parliament leading to an immediate new election, etc.).

The link below is to Phillippe Fournier's 338 website on Canadian election polls and projections. He's sort of a Canadian analogue to Nate Silver and the 538 site.

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