RE: How assumptions that used to be good, turn out to be bad: complicated vs complex world views

It all depends on the person and how good can he/she makes the complicated situations to look simple, as you used the machine for an example from an investor point of view how fast this machine can produce, from a mechanic view how easy to take the parts out from a scientific he have to go into 100% detail. I absolutely agree with you about being fully knowledgeable about opportunities but as you said everything is moving fast that leaves us with a hard choice of just to take the chance if just knowing 60% otherwise you'll miss the opportunity. I used 60 to be in the safe side many investors take way higher risk than 60%