The International Monetary Fund is estimating that India will reclaim the world's fastest growing economy status by 2021, with gross domestic product expected to grow 11.5 percent. It lost the title previously to China but that is expected to change soon as it grows to a $5 trillion economy.
It's estimated that the global economy shrank by at least 4.3 percent in 2020 and still the impacts of last year are expected to be felt for potentially years to come yet.
On Feb. 1st the Finance Minister of India is expected to unveil the new budget which might contain a highly anticipated boost in stimulus funding. As infections drop and they roll out their vaccine plan, along with other regions, optimism is starting to strengthen.
The upcoming announcement of the budget is one of the most highly anticipated government events on their calendar. According to one Reuters poll of economists, at least 60 percent believe that the upcoming budget is going to play a significant role in boosting the economy.
"We expect global economic activity to return to normality in fiscal Q2 and India to grow in fiscal 2021/22, with government stimulus packages expecting to contribute,... There is a strong sentiment the budget will aim to continue expenditure as growth is the only way India can come out of recent setbacks." - H. Erken, head of international economics at Rabobank.
As for how long it might be before they start to see a recovery similar to pre-COVID-19 levels, those economists taking part in the poll suggest it might be between 2 years or more to see that happen.
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