A few days ago @taskmaster4450 (I wonder what this pseudonym refers to) published an enticing article called "5 reasons why Hive will hit $100". That is of course clickbait - cheap dopamine for us readers.
His 5 reasons started with number one "Technology". The second was DeFi - which is indeed a nice functionality of Hive and could develop even better on the 2nd layer ... thanks to Hive's outstanding technology and crypto-economics. The third reason, "scaling a decentralized database" is, yet again, technology repeated. The fourth he mentions is the HBD, which is indeed a brilliant functionality that I'd class into "Hive crypto-economics". The fifth reason taskmaster advances is called "everything app", which doesn't exist yet, certainly not in the blockchain space - the closest thing I've heard of is the Chinese WeChat.
So if we strip down the click-baity stuff of the article, we can agree that Hive has two big things going for it:
- Technology (excellent)
- Crypto-economics (zero tx fees, built-in DeFi functionalities, an incipient reputation system, etc.)
However, if we look around and are honest with ourselves, we cannot but admit that Hive, like Steem before it, still lacks the essential ingredient: "Ryoshi".
Bitcoin has Satoshi Nakamoto
Ethereum has Vitalik Buterin
Steem used to have Dan and Ned but has been left faceless.
There is no strong leader for the Hive community. Yes, we are "decentralized". But the currency of leaderless, decentralized communities is going to have a hard time reaching a market capitalization to rival that of much inferior cryptocurrencies who can boast a leader and a narrative (however ridiculous).
No better example than "Shiba Inu", a joke of a joke cryptocurrency, modeled after Doge (itself a joke crypto).
With a market capitalization of several billions, Shiba Inu towers above many serious, well designed cryptos
Yet Shiba Inu has no technology to speak of, having started as a mere ERC-20 token on Ethereum. And it has no serious crypto-economics either, despite the joke tokens BONE and LEASH.
Shiba Inu instead has "Ryoshi", a fictional leader with a narrative. The rocket-like trajectory of Shiba Inu, like that of Doge, who had no other than Elon Musk himself as champion, show that:
1. Technology doesn't matter
2. Crypto-economics do not matter
All that Hive needs to reach $100 is a "hero", a "father-like figure" to tell a good story and lead "the Hive army".
This is how human communities form and prosper, ever since Abraham and Moyse and Jesus, through Alexander the Great and Caesar and Washington and Napoleon and Lincoln and Churchill and up to Lee Kuan Yew
All that Hive needs to reach $100 is our own Ryoshi
