I (kinda) promised a more detailed cake investment post the other day and here we are now. 😁
Gameplay Value
I'm pretty sure many know this by now, but let's go over it once again.
Cakes are essentially Pizzas that go into cooldown for 12 Hours instead of the regular 24.
The Cake does count as a "unique card" in your collection, and many collectors get at least one to increase their unique card count even if they don't want/like the card itself.
And that's about it!
If you're a meta player who likes to go by the numbers in-game, then I guess that's all you need to know.
Investment Value
Pizzas are issued by the game at a fixed 10K SB Price indefinitely, but Birthday Cakes are limited-edition cards that cost 30K SB and take a 1-hour mission to acquire. And, this is a no-brainer, they will NOT be available after April 30th... which is roughly less than 10 hours away, If I'm not mistaken.
You pay thrice the STARBITS to get a Cake, but receive twice the value in return, but the Cake's TRUE value lies in the time it is not actually available for 30K - that's when the holders set the price.
Also, if you've been playing for some time now, you DO realize how important energy items like Pizzas and Pizza Boxes are, plus how they help cover their own costs. So, in other words, Cakes, although more expensive, help cover their own costs as well - that's the power of 'utility'.
How the Stats and Numbers Look As of Now
Previous Cake
I wasn't around during the first birthday, but I hear that back then the cakes were up for sale for 10K STARBITS (NO missions required).
You can see how the prices for them look right now - although I believe they're only worth the collectors' money, considering how expensive they are.
But for a 10K SB Energy booster to reach this price, it has done pretty well. One reason for that would be the 'circulation'...
Circulation
There are currently around 300 1st year Birthday Cakes in circulation, as opposed to the 2nd year Cake's over 2000 circulation. Almost 7 times the first year's, which definitely impacts the price and the speed at which the price grows. But on the other side, the player base has grown since then - we're standing at ~7K weekly active players now. There used to be 600 during the first year's Easter.
600 players - 300 cakes
say 6000 players - 2000 cakes
I think that's enough calculation to prove that they are rare enough!
Base Value
The first year's cakes were bought at 10K and now are well over 150-200K right now! If we take liquidity into account, the ones sold on the market were sold for 150K SB!
This year's cakes are bought at 30K... I guess you know where I'm going with this right? No one but a fool would let go of their limited edition card bought at 30K for less than the amount paid once it's not available for the original 30K SB anymore. I'd say 100K SB in a couple of months after another wave of players get on the game is plausible... but it could very well not become true at all!
How I did it
I for one have been meaning to get Cakes, so what better than the cheap ones sold by the game itself.
Previously I had 21 Pizzas (21 Energy refills every day), and I sold them for ~185K SB total. With another 115K SB from my savings, I got 10 Cakes from running missions and that would give me 20 Energy refills every day which is effectively the same as before. I consider it an investment for the future - if Cake prices go up, great! If they stay at the same price, well, I'm using them, just a 115K SB loss which would be earned again over time. One thing for sure, however, is that they wouldn't go lower than 20K (their gameplay value - as the Cold Pizzas are on sale indefinitely) or 30K (the original price they were acquired for).
That's it for today's 'tutorial'. Do your own research and act according to what you think works best!
Stay safe and invest responsibly!
Cheers~