It's been about three months since US COVID-19/SARS-CoV-2 concerns really started taking off in late February. Let's take a quick look back at what has happened while we try to plan ahead for an uncertain future.
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There has been a very deliberate campaign to move the goalpost in discussing the pandemic. Just three months ago, we were shown charts stating that a certain number of people would be infected no matter what we did in response, but a temporary economic shutdown and social distancing program would flatten the curve so hospitals would not be overwhelmed.
The political responses varied in speed and severity, and in the end, data shows... a lot of noise. There are plenty of ex-post-facto justifications for data not matching predictions. "Oh, the Japanese wear masks and practice good hygiene." Yeah, but everyone already knew that from the start when estimating infection rates and death tolls.
This is clearly far more complex and nuanced than the models indicated, but what's really going on, and how should people respond to these changing conditions? Different states have had different responses and different outcomes, but no real correlation, much less demonstrable causation, between them. Same for different nations. We can try to cherry-pick examples, but the fact is, we know little and understand less.
There were dire predictions of doom for those who dared flout the draconian dictates. The fact remains that there was no curve to flatten. Field hospitals went almost entirely unused. Hospitals were, with a few notable exceptions, almost entirely empty as staff amused themselves alternately goofing off in online videos and sanctimoniously chastising us when we dared question the political response. Many hospitals laid off staff amidst an alleged overwhelming crisis. Meanwhile, people who needed treatment for everything from elective surgery to cancer have been either turned away or voluntarily avoiding the hospitals out of fear.
But instead of recognizing that something was wrong with the predictions, the goalpost was moved when the curve disappeared before our eyes, and new impositions were added.
To be continued in Part 2
