One of my new hobbies has been to look at the decreasing HIVE supply, which over the last week has reduced quite dramatically on the back of HBD Stabilizer activity. In fact, it has so far dropped 148,335 HIVE, which is about an average of 20,000 HIVE a day. If this did happen to stay constant for a year, it would be, 7.3M HIVE, or 1.9% of the entire HIVE supply to date.
That is a pretty big reduction. With HIVE market price lower at the moment, I would like to see a very big spike in the value of HBD, so that a lot of HIVE could be bought and pushed into the HDF, taking it out of circulation. While not everyone is a fan, it is actually a pretty cool mechanism, like an in-built buyback and sink function.
7th April (nowish)
While the HIVE price has been collapsing the last few days, the entire market has turned red, so if people are looking for an opportunity to get in with fiat into a bull-market year, this might be a solid opportunity to enter.
It is funny to think that it was only a few weeks ago that people were talking that "if HIVE hit 50 cents" they would look to sell, but now 50 cents seems low. This creates a weirdness as well, as if it seems low now, why did it seem like a good place to sell then?
We get used to conditions very quickly.
My portfolio has lost "a little" ground over the last days, but should it concern me, is this the end of the bull market, are the bears going to win the tug of war and drive prices down from here, back to the dark ages of January 2021? I don't think so.
This is total market capitalization and it crossed 2 trillion for the first time a day or two ago, but currently rests at about 1.9 Trillion.
This is about the same time period January to mid-April in 2017.
Looks similar, though the volume has changed a lot. Back at the peak of 2017/18, there was 66B in traded volume, currently it is between 130 and 200 billion daily. Obviously this is affected by the changing value of Bitcoin and other cryptos like Eth at all time highs, but it is a decent amount.
I don't know what happened on those two days in March recently, but while there has been 200B in trade in 24h the last few days, the first red circle saw 8 trillion and the second 5 trillion in market trade. I haven't seen it mentioned anywhere, Anyone know? Glitch in the chart perhaps? At least, the market cap didn't seem to move that much (dip on the second), considering even the smaller spike is 25x the normal volume.
Anyway, it could very well be that the bullrun is over for the year before it really got started and now we will have to wait another four years until the next opportunity. You going to sell now to capitalize on the lows two years from now?
A couple clicks and everything you hold (that isn't time-locked) could be liquidated into fiat - ready to pull the trigger?
I think that this is a part of trading that most people don't spend that much time thinking about, where they set prices to sell at on the way up, but not on the way down. Much of the difficulty of mindset around trading is in this area, where people become uncertain, looking at their gains of the past and not wanting to lose them, but also not wanting to lose out on the gains of the future that they would realize if selling and the markets turned.
For most and including myself in this pack, I am guessing these dips in the bull are the hardest part of being in crypto, as at the depth of the bear, there is the expectation that things will turn upward, but in the bull, there is the unanswerable question of "is this the top?"
No one wants to be left holding a losing bag. No one wants to sell early.
If only I had, what if I, could I possibly...
No one can tell you what to do in these situations, but whatever you decide, make sure it is a decision that you are willing to live with because, you are going to have to live with it.
One good thing to remember is, it is generally not the end of the world to make errors of judgement in this area.
[ Gen1: Hive ]