I was just having a look at what I have on Binance (which isn't much) and the "Today's Profit and Loss" numbers. Apparently, I am down 0.75% in the last 24 hours. Oh noes... But, I was just thinking at how rarely I pay attention to that number, regardless of whether it is red or green.
Today it is red, but ultimately, I expect that it is going to end up in the green, because well, ultimately I believe that my crypto holdings are going to be worth more tomorrow, than they are today, otherwise, why would I hold at all? The trouble is, I like everyone else, have no idea what the future price will be, so when is the right time to sell, or convert into something else?
This is the weekly chart on Bitcoin:
This latest run hit an all time high, but it doesn't look very complete, does it? If anything, it looks more like it is just getting warmed up, with an incoming dip over the next few weeks to rattle a few more tokens out of looser hands, before moving over the next few months steadily upward.
100? 150? 200?
From here, if I just hold the "random" selection of tokens I have on Binance at the moment, what will be the value of my holdings if Bitcoin hit those points. I don't have any Bitcoin there, so it is all alts, but they might move with more velocity than bitcoin, as their caps are much lower, and if value drains into them, they might go quite extreme. If for instance there was 1000 dollars worth there now, what value would you predict it to be around the time Bitcoin hits 100, 15, or 200?
2x? 3x? 5x? 10x?
It is impossible to tell, isn't it? While there is a clear assumption of a level of inevitability, no one can know what that inevitable looks like, especially when it comes to alt tokens. While I am not one of them, I think that BTC holders are on a more "sure thing" in terms of it going up, but the percentage increase of their holdings might be far lower than a lot of other tokens. However, there is less "guess work" (crossing fingers) with Bitcoin, it is more just buy and hold, waiting for the rest of the world to catch up.
Will they?
Probably.
For those that have been around a little while, you will remember all of the FUD over the years, like China banning mining, the energy consumption of small countries, and of course, anything the SEC has done over the last decade. Time and time again, there have been concerted campaigns in the media against Bitcoin, Ethereum and crypto in general, only to have the same media backflip months later with headlines like "Is it too late to buy crypto?" Never trust the mainstream.
Because they are centralized.
The mainstream is never impartial, because they are always pandering to their audience, which is the average person, who doesn't really want to know about anything, but wants to feel that they do. Is the average reader the kind of person you would turn to for investment advice? Then, why would you be reading and trusting content that is aimed at them?
Don't listen to me.
It is always a "Do Your Own Research" situation in crypto, which is good, because it teaches a level of responsibility that most people don't have from the society we have built. If we were to do our own research on the economy, the governance structures, and the way corporations operate, we would very quickly realize that the system is broken. Not because we didn't understand it, but because it is fundamentally broken by design in ways that ensure that fewer and fewer people benefit, and increasingly more suffer, until it all collapses.
I don't know what tomorrow's PnL is going to be, or a month, year, or decade from now. However, what I do know is that the current economic structure is fundamentally flawed and there is an inevitability in the outcome of running the system in its status quo state. If we don't do something, it is going to get painful for the majority of us, because that is what it is designed to do.
No one is currently forced into crypto, as they are into the legacy economy, and it is this that slows down adoption. But of course, no one should be forced into it, because that is the way an economy should work. We should be building economies that work for us, that benefit us, that help us trade skills across our networks - and because they work, we use them. That is not what the current economic practices provide, and it is because the majority think they can't opt out of it, that it is able to be so controlling over our lives.
It could be gone in an instant.
But, most can't imagine what life would be without it. And when we can't imagine a better alternative for profit, we will keep choosing to stay with the devil we know - even if we face continual loss.
Taraz
[ Gen1: Hive ]