At some point, I am confident that the HIVE chart is going to hockeystick and it isn't going to come back down to these levels ever again. I don't know what it is goin to be that pushes the price up, but once the ball starts rolling, up it will go. It could be that one of the projects like LEO becomes a gateway for mass adoption, it could be that a celebrity with a huge following joins, it could be that a large investor buys and then corrals more investment, it could be that the community can attract other communities who join to massively swell the numbers - it could be all of these things combined and perhaps, it is the all that is likely.
Once the ball is rolling, the momentum builds behind it and people start to take notice and jump on the bandwagon, even if it is to do nothing more than make sure that the competition doesn't get too far ahead.
Last night, I was talking to my wife about holdings and price predictions of Bitcoin, as it is easier for her to understand this from a single token perspective, without including other streams. I was showing her the stock-to-flow models and the predictions for the future and she asked, "but it has to end sometime, right?".
Yes. And no.
Firstly, the value of Bitcoin is a tiny drop in the ocean in comparison to what kind of wealth is circulating in the world and I explained that for example, the market capitalization of BTC is around a trillion dollars, which sounds like a lot, until considering that the two largest managed fund in the world are a combined 15 trillion. And at least the largest of those, BlackRock, has started to "dabble" in Bitcoin. A 1% dabble for them is about a 75 billion dollar move. This is is significant as about 7% of the total cap of Bitcoin, but it has far greater significance as it will mean that the second largest, The Vanguard Group, will have to follow suit, because if BlackRock is able to make significant gains, it makes that of Vanguard less attractive and investors will move elsewhere. So, they will make the move, as even if they lose, they both lose.
This triggers the third, fourth and next 10,000 managed funds to start dabbling in Bitcoin too and as you can imagine, while the 10,000th is much smaller than the first, none of them are what you would consider small and collectively, the wealth is enormous, even at 1% of an investment. Will they stick to 1 percent? So, bitcoin takes the lion's share of initial investment from the traditional investors, because they like to play it "safe". This keeps the value of Bitcoin steadily increasing, but returning less percentage gain, stabilizing it over time.
But, there is more out there than Bitcoin and there are an increasing number of options for the people who invest large amounts into something like a BlackRock fund, into something that will return a far higher rate, such as the DeFi pools that will turn the investors into managed funds and banks themselves. This undermines the foundation of the current crop of funds, meaning that they will slowly lose their investment potential, but the money that was there still stays where it was in crypto, just held more personally and used directly.
Once individuals stat investing more directly and realize how crypto works, where they can not only get a return, but invest into projects that will supercharge that return, they will explore what options there are. At the moment, there aren't too many project options that really have a working product, let alone many working products and services that have track record of usage by a community, that is now building and supporting the growth of an increasing number of communities.
Hive has many legs and many heads - it can run in any direction and it has a support base that can underpin the early moves so that an early adopter investor can have some stability to place their wealth upon and take it further forward. Hive is an incubator that never has to cut loose a startup and instead, keep expanding the fleet of powerful and valuable communities, housed in an ever expanding garage. As time goes on and there are more in the fleet, they all start benefiting from each other through intertwining investment portfolios, to create a mesh of Hive-powered communities, platforms and economic vehicles that all add strength and wealth to each other.
It is much like the collective wealth of the 10,000 investment funds, except with a bit of a difference. Those funs invest into businesses that offer some rate of return, but they themselves are not producing anything of value, other than the management of the funds. But, when there are 10,000 companies in a single ecosystem that all produce something and use some portion of their gains to invest into each other, they supercharge the value, whilst also bringing stability. An investor comes into Leo with 5% of their investment, recognizes the value of holding staked HIVE and adds another 1% there, potentially finding a piece of art on NFT Showroom to buy, adding a little consumption also.
When each of the 10,000 communities of varying sizes are gateways into themselves, as well as an introduction into the HIVE garage, more and more people will explore the option on Hive, creating an economy that becomes increasingly circular as well as increasingly decentralized through usage. This means that all communities will benefit as individual businesses and their further investments will benefit from investing into adjacent communities across the HIVE ecosystem. As more and more people come in to invest, more come in to build, as more build, more invest.
And at the base of it all, is us, the entire community of users, each using the Hive blockchain in a unique profile of ways for investment, work, social life, art and entertainment. We make gains on some parts, we spend gains in another - and a portion of what we spend is being used to invest by someone into their own unique Hive experience, possible in a way that we would not use it ourselves. This gives a great deal of investment diversity to the Hive community, even if an individual stays relatively narrow.
So, at some point, I see Hive going up and if a few parts of the paradigm shift of society align, it isn't going to be coming down again, as people will recognize the opportunity to take back control of investment and generate and create value in a far more direct and sustainable way, than a managed fund that only looks for financial ROI.
A long way in the future.
[ Gen1: Hive ]