Any gold bug will tell you how US dollar is trash and has lost 97% of it's value due to inflation and money printing
Likewise, if you asked a Bitcoin maximalist, you will get the same story except now Bitcoin is the future, the sound money, the hard money, and it is the only thing that will protect your wealth and store value when everything goes kaboom (I wonder how we are going to keep Proof of Work going and connect to internet when everything goes kaboom and we are back to stone age)
The purpose of today's discussion is not to debate whether gold, Bitcoin, or any crypto is going to be be the future, or store of wealth, or going to the moon.
The purpose is to present you with another perspective and answer what "losing 97% of its value" really means and why it does not matter.
Here is a useful website I found with quick google search, for visuals I will borrow a few charts:
https://www.in2013dollars.com/us/inflation/1913?amount=100
$1 from 1913 is worth about 3 cents by 2022 (in other words, if you saved $1 you need to 30x over 109 years to maintain the same purchasing power - crypto people probably want to do it in 4 years #lol)
This is the official US annual inflation rate since 1913, individual experience may vary depending on individual consumption mix
Other ways to present what this inflation means over 109 years
Why it does NOT matter?
- The 97% lost in purchasing power is not the real world experience, because:
- If you are reading this, you know most people do not hide the cash under the mattress and do nothing with it
- To lose 97% of purchasing power you had to literally dig a hole and hide that coins/bills for the entire 109 years
- Even if you have only recently dug up the buried coins/bills from your ancestor, chances are you are going to be able to sell for more than the face value to collectors (and you won't lose 97% of the value)
More likely than not...
- Spenders living pay check to pay check would have spent the $1 rather quickly, purchasing power is stable in the short-term
- Savers would have put the $1 in interest bearing investments to offset the impact of inflation
- Investors would have invested the $1, some options below:
30x is the number to beat to keep up with inflation
(let's ignore taxes, that is a whole other discussion)
*Note: the multiples you are about to see is dramatic, because the historical index value (the denominator) is very very small. This is a comparable presentment to the fiat losing 97% value since 1913 narrative
S&P 500 Index (1915 to now) - 7.48 to 3852
- 515x
- source: https://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-historical-prices/table/by-year (citing this source to line up the starting year closer to DOW Jones)
chart below is 1928 to now, 219x
https://www.macrotrends.net/2324/sp-500-historical-chart-data
DOW Jones Index (1915 to now) - 55.02 to 32920
- 598x
https://www.macrotrends.net/1319/dow-jones-100-year-historical-chart
Gold Price (1915 to now) - $19.25 (pegged) to $1804
- 93x
https://www.macrotrends.net/1333/historical-gold-prices-100-year-chart
Silver Price - $0.51 to $23
- 45x
https://www.macrotrends.net/1470/historical-silver-prices-100-year-chart
As you can see, all the options offset the impact of inflation, even burying coins/bills in a hole for 109 years
We need to appreciate fiat currency, it is not a long term store of value but it is good at what it is design to do
Fiat currency = fiat money = medium of exchange = pay check = income = interest = dividend, they give you the ability to exchange for other assets
- The most important mindset is that currency/money is transitory. They are stable in the short-term
- Assets are for hoarders (investors, speculators). They could be volatile and the cycle could be years
- They each have pros and cons, pick the right tool for the right job!
Fiat currency is not meant to be stored forever. Like electricity, use it or lose it. Even if you stored electricity in a battery, use it or lose it (battery too, degrades over time)
Fiat currency, like electricity, energizes the system, it gets the job done and keeps the system up and running (exchanging value from one person to another)
Not all assets should be hoarded. Fiat money is not designed to be hoarded forever. Have fiat money for your day to day, fulfill your hoarding habits with other better options.