The chart you see above has been pulled back from towards the end of last year. It's a 4 hour chart. What we see here are two long term support zones of the HIVE/USD pair. The first support after the major crash of hive was nice and strong at roughly the 10 cents level. The resistance was roughly 12 cents, so the support zone was a two cent range between 10-12 cents.
One the 12 cents resistance was strongly broken, it became the support zone for the longest period of time (probably) since the inception of HIVE. After a very lengthy (and boring, yes) period of consolidation of the support zone when the HIVE/USD pair started moving, the move was constantly upwards, following the parabolic curve that dada has been showing us for over a month now.
The point I am trying to make here is simple. Because we had a very long testing of the support zone, it makes the base much stronger and the price actions are much more sustainable.
Before going completely parabolic and making all our hearts go lub-dub at the speed of light, HIVE did test a new higher support zone at 20 cents. But this support zone was tested for a very short period of time, it doesn't give me enough confidence that should HIVE fall from the support it is at now, 20 cents will not hold and we're back to the dark times of 10-14 cents.
The reason I bring this up is, after HIVE went kaboom a few days back, there's a growing impatience among us to see it go....well, kaboom again! Sure we could ride the hype and jump on the bull, but what do you expect is going to happen if you get on to ride a raging bull without first learning how to ride (read consolidate support zones) in the first place?
If you think I am just over-speculating, here's a chart, of HIVE itself to show you what can happen.
No support testing, no correction in between. What else did you expect, HIVE was going to maintain that high forever! We can fly again, but in the same way Ikarus lost his wings when he flew too close to the sun, we will too if we don't test and retest and strengthen our wings!
But this time it's different. The rise has not been entirely unchecked and since peaking up to around 43 cents, HIVE is now testing the support zone at 28-30 cents. The following is an hourly chart, because the 4 hourly, or daily chart just doesn't have enough candle to show the support zone properly.
I hope we test this zone a bit more before launching (I'll get a lot of hate from a lot of people for this, but okay) higher. But the interesting thing is, when I looked at the 4 hourly chart, I started to spot a Penant forming. I thought I was probably overthinking, but dada deemed the pattern to exist, we just need volume for it to pan out. Now these are just rough estimates because I still don't know how to perfectly draw these line, I used the measuring ruler on the tools to get the speculation as accurate as possible.
The way a penant (or a flag) works is, if there is a breakout from the triangle, then the rise will be represented by Pole B, which should be identical in length to Pole A. Without complicating the decimals, I took Pole A from 22 cents to 37 cents (it is actually a little more imo) and so considering Pole B starts from 31 cents, that should take HIVE to 46 cents during the next Rally. But this can only happen if we have enough volume to drive a rally.
The volume has fallen significantly over the last few days. Call me an optimist, but I'll say we needed that to halt another upswing immediately to test and strengthen the current support zone first.
No harm in wishing for HIVE to go to the moon, but you what they say! Careful what you wish for! I have a theory that, harder the bull is running, the more the number of bones you break if you fall off! How did I come up with this theory? Let's just call it an educated guess ;)