Shifting Our Mental Model Of Change

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There is a group on Facebook where Turkish science fiction fans come together. Recently, pictures and stories produced by artificial intelligence algorithms are frequently shared in the group. Midjourney is used for creating images, and ChatGPT for stories. The quality of images and stories produced by algorithms is increasing astonishingly.

I produced the cover picture of this post using the Midjourney application. The expression I use to derive the image: Man working on finance, chart. I also created a zombie sci-fi story using ChatGPT. While reading the story, I wondered if it was better than me. :) In the last 15 years, algorithms that produce works of art have almost leaped into an era. Information technology is developing exponentially.

In evolution, our minds have been shaped to perceive development as linear. For most of human history, change has been slow. In the 19th and 20th centuries, the wheels of history accelerated. In the 21st century, however, the exponential development of technology has become evident. It's no coincidence that Ray Kurzweil wrote The Law of Accelerating Returns paper in 2001. Although we encounter many examples of exponential development, it takes work to abandon the habit of linear thinking. Especially when fear becomes the dominant emotion, as it is nowadays, we focus on risks rather than opportunities. The logarithmic chart below, showing the crypto market's total value, illustrates the crypto industry's unique potential. Despite the depreciation in the last year, we can easily see the exponential trend.

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The crypto market could gain tenfold in the next bull market. In this context, it is not so important whether the cost of the Bitcoin we will buy will be 17 thousand dollars or 14 thousand dollars. While waiting for 14 thousand dollars, it is possible to endure a cost of more than 20 thousand dollars.

Taking advantage of the opportunities created by periods of rapid change requires a different perspective. Volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity have become the new normal. Moreover, this situation is not unique to the crypto market.

In this part of the article, I would like to include the text produced by the ChatGPT bot about linear and exponential trends.

Linear developments refer to situations where a quantity increases or constantly decreases over time. For example, if a person earns $10 per hour and works for 10 hours, their total earnings would be $100. In this case, the person's earnings increased linearly with the number of hours worked. On the other hand, consistent exponential developments refer to situations where a quantity increases or decreases by a multiple over time. For example, if a person invests $100 at a 5% interest rate, their investment would be worth $105 after one year. In this case, the person's investment increases exponentially with time. One key difference between linear and exponential developments is the rate at which the quantity increases or decreases. Linear developments tend to increase or decrease at a steady pace, while exponential developments tend to accelerate or decelerate over time. In the long term, exponential developments produce much more significant changes than linear developments.

The exponential development age offers excellent opportunities to those who can adapt to change.

Thank you for reading.

Links to the apps:
https://chat.openai.com/chat
https://midjourney.com/

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