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Now when we're in the stage of bull cycle where people have "belief" that this is bull cycle and mostly people are allocated 100% like fully invested in the market and it's based on the sentiments I've read on my timeline and some group chats as well as reels on internet.
Retailers (normies) are already talking about coins on Instagram, Facebook and other social platforms but the part that makes me sure they're fully investing is seeing people saying "I've bought this coin and in 4 years it value will be this".
It's the one psychological indicator to find out whether retailers are fully invested or not yet.
So when they are here it means bull cycle will shake them out and we need to study the "exit plan".
The Bull run Exit: Conditions to exit from the Market
One of the thing I'm carefully looking for will be judging the "beginning of euphoria". in the bull cycle that's the phase of market when everyone gets FOMO.
But what if I got fomo? I've a solution for this; just make a note or write down on paper your emotions about market everytime when you feel fear or greed just write down what's that point in market that triggers those emotions and when euphoria phase will be in you will be just fine.
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Other condition is: When the bull run provides profit that makes you feel like it can fulfil your dream that's when it's better to exit without any second thought and there will be no regret even market continues to perform.
Euphoria, Dream.. what could be next thing? it is to predict the blow off top and crash before it happens and flushes away all the efforts.
The Blow off Top: Predicting from Previous Bull Cycles
We've heard about history doesn't repeat but it often rhymes and that's so true for financial markets.
A lot of bull or bear cycles are similar to previous one's like this bull cycle had similarities with last one 2020-2021 and the more you study about previous cycles the more easy it is to predict the blow off top imo.
I've already worked a lot on it and predicted recent nuke after all time high (same thing happened last cycle, market went down about -18% in starting days of march 2023) and this -10% nuke on Bitcoin also happened on the starting days of march.
The Point here is history does rhyme but if you don't agree I've something better to prove my point.
This is my complete bull cycle thesis and will breakdown the keypoints.
- 427 days of consolidation before next rally (2019-2020)
- took 427days to bottom and rally upside (2023-ongoing).
- Rally goes on for about 196days before first crash that happened in may 2021.
Now that bullish 196 day according to my thesis will be completed around the end of June.
Before the crash last three weeks Bitcoin went above 70% and from current price this puts it at $120k and that's my prediction of blow off top in this cycle.
It's just based on my assumption, haven't seen on internet nor anywhere else.. I did created my own analysis and could be wrong or far worse but I've faith in it and will eventually find out about this prediction in three months from now.
Wrapping Up...
This is the bull cycle exit plan from the market before it crashes again and we winter in a long bear market. For now, I just hope the little dreams and expectations we've from crypto will come true before the end of bull run.
In the end I'd love to know what your opinion and thoughts about it in the comments.
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