The price of Bitcoin will reach USD 100,000 to USD 200,000 in the next 12 months has become a fairly common prediction.
Currently, Bitcoin is in a bull market cycle. The year-to-date growth has exceeded 200%, and will surpass most of the stock growth in 2020.
But this rally seems to be different from the rally at the end of 2017:
First, the historical high has been clearly broken;
Second, institutions are accumulating Bitcoin, while most of the public is still on the sidelines.
"We are in a flood of money and credit"
In this bull market cycle, with the accelerated expansion of central bank currencies as the main driving force, predictions of Bitcoin reaching six-digit prices have become more and more common.
When billionaires like Ray Dalio began to have the idea of investing in Bitcoin and gold, it was also a phenomenon of "currency devaluation" diversified.
" We are in a state of proliferation of money and credit, causing most asset prices to rise, and distributing wealth in a way that we currently believe is impossible with normal systems. This is threatening the value of our money and credit. "
He warned at the Reddit conference on December 8th:
" This wave of floods is likely to not subside. Even if assets are measured by currency depreciation, their value will still not decrease. But the important thing is that we need to diversify in terms of currencies and countries and asset classes. "
Will Bitcoin reach 100,000-200,000 US dollars?
As Cointelegraph mentioned in its May report, Morgan Creek CEO Mark Yusko (Mark Yusko) stated that the price of BTC may exceed $100,000 in the next year or so. Since May, the price of Bitcoin has more than doubled. But in the next 12 months, the price of BTC will still have to rise by about 300% to reach the expected six figures.
This estimate echoes the predictions of the popular Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model. The creator of the model planB said that the S2F model is still correct. Last month, planB reiterated that he still believes that BTC will reach US$100,000 in December 2021 due to a “supply shortage”.
planB wrote last month:
" People often ask me if I still believe in my model. To be clear, I have no doubt that the Bitcoin S2FX model has the correct predictive ability, and that Bitcoin will reach $100,000-288,000 by December 2021. "
According to reports, in the past month, Bitcoin has caught up with the average trend line of the S2F model.
"Conservative" $200,000-300,000?
According to other analysts, the $200,000 price forecast is even relatively mild. Popular on-chain analyst Will Woo said he now sees more evidence. At the same time, due to the aforementioned shortage of Bitcoin inventory, the supply of BTC in the exchange is also decreasing.
BTC reserves of all exchanges, source CryptoQuant
According to Woo, this will have a double impact on the bear market.
" My top model found that the value of BTC at $200,000 by the end of 2021 is a conservative forecast, and it is not impossible to reach a value of $300,000. "
He continued in another article: "I have never been so optimistic about 2021. This stage of re-accumulation coincides with the inventory consumption of the spot market, and the level is about twice as high as the previous cycle."
400,000 US dollars and higher "digital gold"?
The higher price prediction for Bitcoin comes from the argument: "Bitcoin can challenge (or has begun to challenge) and eventually replace gold as a de facto store of value."
Interestingly, as Bitcoin rose to an all-time high in early December, its performance in 2020 will greatly outperform gold, and some of the most optimistic predictions come from the traditional financial sector.
For example, in November, an analyst at Citibank stated in a report to clients that Bitcoin could reach a high of $318,000 in 2021.
Citibank executives currently believe that Bitcoin is in the middle of the bull market and looks like a "very clear investment channel", believing that Bitcoin's target price in December 2021 should be set at $318,000.
At the same time, JP Morgan Chase also began to point out that Bitcoin is becoming more and more popular among traditional investors. In fact, compared with the already "very mature" gold investment, this investment banking giant believes that Bitcoin as a "digital gold" has greater upside potential.
In the instructions to the client, the strategist said:
“ Institutional investors’ investment in Bitcoin has just begun. Compared to gold, Bitcoin’s investment is more beneficial to institutional investors. If this mid- to long-term view is proven correct, then gold prices will suffer in the next few years. Structural obstacles. "
Today, the market capacity of Bitcoin is less than 4% of the market value of gold. This huge upside potential has also prompted other big-name investors to share their predictions that Bitcoin will reach a market capacity of $9 trillion to challenge or even surpass gold.
Morgan Creek's Anthony Pompliano's Bitcoin price prediction is still about $100,000 in 2021. However, if BTC starts to catch up with the price of gold in the summer, he will give a long-term goal of 400,000 US dollars. At the same time, the founders of the Gemini Exchange, Tyler and Cameron Winklevoss, believe that Bitcoin "is a better gold than gold", which means that a price increase to $500,000 is also very useful. possible.
Cameron said that MicroStrategy and other investment companies’ purchases of large amounts of Bitcoin are just the beginning of a major shift. More importantly, Wall Street has already begun a Bitcoin investment boom, and Bitcoin will quickly become its “no-brain” portfolio. a part of.
Finally he added:
" What if every Fortune 100 or 500 company does this, and what if the central bank starts to do it? They haven't even started to do it. "
