Hello, friends, I'm talking about coins. In this market, if you are in a state of constant loss, it is better to change the environment. It may be your changes that will give you different results. It is because we understand that when we are in trouble, we will change ourselves to adapt to the changing environment and escape.
Last night, Bitcoin stood at 20,000 US dollars, which really opened up space. The next thing everyone is worried about is another currency trend.
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Let's talk about Ethereum today.
Many readers have left messages time and time again asking me if Ethereum's market value exceeds Bitcoin's. Now that Bitcoin has broken through its previous highs, if Ethereum could still have this imagination, its increase would be inconceivable.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin's market value is $ 424.2 billion and Ethereum's market value is $ 73 billion. When calculated at its current price, Ethereum's market value must catch up to or even surpass Bitcoin, and its price must be at least 6 times its current price, reaching $ 3,852.
Assuming that this situation can actually occur, I think it will probably be in the middle and end of a bull market period nearing frenzy, as the middle and late periods of a bull market are often the catalyst for turning points or miracles. In the middle and end of the bull market period, Bitcoin price will be higher than it is now, so the Ethereum price at that time will be higher than $ 3,852.
This reduction may seem a little unbelievable right now, but I think it is very likely to come true - as long as there are no major accidents or catastrophes in Ethereum development, I believe that Ethereum's market value will exceed a bit at some point in the future. Currency, currency prices have reached positions we cannot imagine today.
Since the launch of Bitcoin in 2009 to the present, Bitcoin positioning and consensus has long been separated from the point-to-point means of payment that Satoshi Nakamoto once dreamed of but has become "digital gold" and a means of storing value. Apart from the long-standing players in the currency circle, institutional investors and practitioners in the traditional financial industry who have bought large amounts of Bitcoin this year, nearly all consider Bitcoin to be "digital gold".
Grayscale Capital directly regards Bitcoin as a competitor and substitute for gold in the promotional videos it produces. This kind of propaganda and awareness is sure to become more and more popular and become the strongest consensus of Bitcoin.
If Bitcoin is gold, in my opinion, Ethereum is relative oil. This point of view, I wrote last year in the article "BTC is the gold of the crypto world, and Ethereum is the oil of the crypto world".
At that time, the entire cryptocurrency market was still a bear market, and there were very few applications in the Ethereum ecosystem. Now, especially after this year's DeFi fermentation round, many players have participated in activities such as liquid mining, mortgages, etc., personally experienced various inconveniences caused by high gas costs, and the characteristics of Ethereum oil are becoming increasingly clear.
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If Bitcoin matches gold and Ethereum matches oil, what about the market value of gold and oil?
As of 17 August 2020, the total market value of gold was around 9 trillion US dollars. According to data from the International Energy Agency, under normal circumstances, the total annual oil demand is around 35 billion barrels, and the current price of one barrel of oil is around 46 US dollars, so that the annual oil consumption is around 1.6 trillion US dollars, which is the equivalent of every society. human. The oil consumed in 6 years is proportional to the total market value of gold.
Therefore, based on this data and analogy, Ethereum's market value will likely exceed Bitcoin's.
But if Ethereum's market value really exceeds Bitcoin's, that means Ethereum's price will be at least 6 times its current price, which means the application fees on Ethereum will be higher than the price at the top of DeFi. Maybe 6 times or more expensive.
But if Ethereum's fees are so high, how many people will participate in Ethereum implementation? If nobody participates in this application, how will the future Ethereum ecology develop?
This is an inevitable problem and an obstacle that must be overcome.
If you want to break through this barrier, there is only one viable path: Ethereum's performance must be greatly improved, so that a large number of applications will not need to run on the Ethereum mainnet in the future, thus avoiding outright payment of gas fees. This is what Ethereum's new revised roadmap does - to expand Ethereum with Rollup as the main route.
If a new version of this roadmap is implemented, a large number of applications will not need to run live on Ethereum in the future, but will run in the second layer of expansion, and will not have to pay frequent fees. At that time, even though the Ethereum price is high, the impact on handling fees will be greatly reduced.
Therefore, I think Ethereum's market value surpasses Bitcoin and becomes stable after the rollup expansion is implemented successfully. High probability is 4 years later.
According to my speculation, this market may reach its climax at the end of next year or early next year. So is it possible that Ethereum's market value will surpass Bitcoin at the end of next year or early next year? This is hard to predict, but if it is really exceeded, I don't think it's a good thing, because the current technology and application scenarios don't support this situation, this may be a clear signal that the bubble is about to burst.
Message from me:
In investing, if you cannot be the master of your mentality, you will inevitably become a slave to emotions. The disadvantages are not too severe. The terrible thing is that you don't know why you lost. There are tens of millions of profit opportunities in this market, but there may be very few points resulting in a fatal loss. First, change is painful, but not changing will always hurt
The content of the above analysis only represents my personal opinion, and the point position is pending and is not a real position operation. Profits and losses are at your own risk. It reminds everyone that investing is risky and you need to be careful when entering the market.