Norway made more from stocks in the past 3 months than its projected cost of covering everything related to covid for the next 3 years

Today, the Norwegian pension fund could present its result from the first quarter of 2021. The net result came in at 382 billion NOK, or 46 billion US.

While that figure is impressive enough in itself for a country with 5,325 million people, it is even more interesting considering that it exceeds the expected societal cost of paying for the whole covid pandemic for 3 years.

The Norwegian pension fund April 2021 covid pandemic.png

The current value of the Norwegian pension fund, as can be seen live on https://www.nbim.no/en/


What is the Norwegian pension fund?

A quick background for those of you that are not familiar with the Norwegian pension fund. Since the beginning of Norway’s offshore oil and gas adventures, it was decided that the profits from the oil exports should belong to the Norwegian people as well as future generations. To ensure this, a fund was established with the sole goal of sustainably and securely maintaining and growing the value of those profits. Of course, Norwegians today also benefit from this, as a fiscal policy rule allows the government to spend up to 3% annually of the fund's value to cover excess spending. The idea is that with an expected return of at least 7% long term, the fund would then still be able to at least preserve its value against inflation and serve its goal of allowing future generations to also benefit from the natural resources extracted and exported by the current generation.

However, in recent decades, the profitability of the fund has far, far, far exceeded these expectations. Because the government has still not been allowed to spend more than a fixed percentage, the value has kept on growing.

You can see the current position that the pension fund has in some of the world's largest companies below (Note that 1 NOK = 10 EUR or 8.35 USD):

Norways largest stock holdings.png

A list of the largest positions held by the Norwegian pension fund in more than 9000 different stocks


Anyone can search through the pension fund's 9123 stock positions as of March 31. 2021. I found this table to be quite interesting, showing not only the companies in which the fund has the largest shares but also what that amounts to in per capita.

I can't help but share this with American friends whenever they bring up how much they and their country are in debt.

Expected cost of the covid pandemic

So that was all about the recent growth in the value of the fund. But what makes this more interesting is how it compares to the country's expected cost of the pandemic, which often makes people raise questions about the economic cost of shut-downs, having the government paying people's wages temporarily for business, buying in vaccines, etc. How does the total societal bill compare to the fund's value?

Earlier this month, a report by the Norwegian commission tasked with reviewing the government’s handling of covid pandemic. One part of the evaluation was a study on the expected cost that the pandemic itself has had in terms of lost productivity, as well as the bill that the government will have to pay for all the restrictions and financial support it has made from 2020-2023.

The total bill is expected to come in at 330 billion NOK, or 39,5 billion USD. This, despite being the total societal cost for 3 years, is still less than the 3 months passive dividends from having a national fund. Mind-blowing, isn’t it?

I guess the lesson is the same that many of us here already know when it comes to personal finance. Namely, that having a strong dividend-paying portfolio, and saving regularly to ensure it grows, make it easy to deal with short-term financial issues. I've written and discussed a fair bit about it with other users about how financial minimalism and the idea of the "FIRE movement" are interesting to me for these reasons. I thus find it interesting to see it also apply on a national level in this way.

So what are your thoughts? Did you have any knowledge of the existence of this national fund and its strong positions in the global stock market? Let me know your thoughts in the comments!

Fredrik

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