Market Watch: Ragnarok

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Bitcoin has very convincingly soft-bounced off of $55k support and broken through a very steep descending channel, then tested the resistance as support twice over the last couple days. Whenever I see something like this it often marks a hugely bullish event. Just sayin.

Of course no one really gives two shits about Bitcoin right now because Hive is going totally bonkers balls bananas. We've never seen Hive pump and then pump again. It always pumps once and then deflates over weeks of agonizing downward trendlines. Not so now, because now we have a double airdrop in the pipe. It's hard to imagine any whales dumping significant volume with 2 airdrops on the line incoming January 6th.

Speaking of Hive firsts...

Isn't it funny how we manipulate the data to fit our own agenda? Whenever I talk about how high Hive can go in a speculative manner, I use Steem's all time high of $8 as a metric. However, whenever I want to hype up Hive's current price, I'd claim that we are basically hovering at all time highs right now. Funny how that works. Perception is reality sometimes. The double standard is real: be on the lookout for this kind of cognitive dissonance. It can bite us in the ass if reality catches up to the fantasy.

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Thou shall not covet thy neighbor's Punks.

As predicted, Hive's Punks have been a great hedge against Hive's volatility. Unfortunately, that means because Hive spiked up super high that those of us who FOMOed into Punks lost a lot of value in terms of opportunity cost. The punks are still worth pretty much the same USD value but the Hive used to purchase them is now worth x3 more and controlled by other users. Oops.

Fortunately, this will also work in reverse. Should Hive crash Punks will go up in price in terms of Hive value. There's also a fair amount of development going on here as well so we'll just have to wait and see where it all goes. The hype is dying down but there have still been some absolutely massive purchases recently.

Something I've been meaning to explain about punks but never got around to is the way rarity works. The rarity of an attribute is 10k divided by the number of punks that have that attribute. Therefore if a punk has a rarity level of 5000 and change we can safely assume that this given punk has a super rare attribute that only one other punk has (5000 + 5000 = 10k).

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Using this equation we can clearly see that both mummies up for sale are the only mummies in existence. We can also see that the same is true about the "wallstreetbets" hair. The eyepatch has a rarity of 3333.33 implying that there are only 3 eyepatches in existence. The same is also true for vampires. Also noteworthy is that it appears that no punk happened to random a unique totally attribute. All the most rarest attributes were randomed at least twice.

Looking at more common attributes we can see that there are "only": * 344 punks with "big shades"

  • 361 punks with "3D glasses"
  • 312 punks with "nerd glasses"
  • 72 punks with a "hoodie"
  • 86 punks with a "pipe"
  • 107 punks with a "cigarette"
  • ETC. ETC.

These numbers are available right next to the rarity score or can be calculated manually by dividing 10k by the score given. That being said they do not account for combinations of attributes. For example I probably own the only crying eyes male with a frog hoodie and a cigarette.

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Feel better, Clay.

On to the main event.

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Yabapmatt bought one of the three vampires for like $8000...
So that's obviously pretty wild.
I think Punks has a long way to go and another hype cycle is bound to hit.


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Ragnarok though.

Multiple people asked me where I got my Ragnarok information from in the comments of yesterday's post. It's from the 2 hour 22 minute podcast from @theycallmedan.

@theycallmedan/svmkpvjf

Ragnarok discussion starts at 1:10:30 and only lasts a few minutes.

Player vs player NFT game.
I'll be releasing a post with the mechanics.
It's definitely going to be the most complex game in Web3.

This is great news for me because I love to navigate the complexity of a hardcore strategy game. The more complex the easier it is to gain an edge against opponents. At this point I very much appreciate Dan's ability to theory-craft and bring a game into the ecosystem that's a net win for all users on the platform.

Gonna be a free airdrop; this won't be a claimdrop.
Card number's gonna be capped [deflationary].
It's not really a "everyone gets to play" type game.
You look at how professional athletes play.

Not everyone plays the game but many will watch.

The implications here are extremely interesting.

If this becomes a heavy spectator sport we can assume it will make it's way to Twitch and other streaming platforms. At the same time we must assume that if this is a heavy spectator sport, and it exists on an unregulatable crypto platform, then there will also be a huge demand to place bets on the outcomes of the winners. Circling back to Twitch, a mechanic like this could quickly get the game banned, especially if spectators are betting directly or indirectly via the chatrooms. Will be VERY interesting to see how this turns out, as it becomes very clear that WEB3 gaming is going to be an absolute regulation nightmare for WEB2 platforms.

Every battle you get XP coins if you win.
XP coins can be traded or used to power up cards.

... in game items, weapons, food, potions, etc.
All of them will cost HBD.

This creates a continuous forever-sink of HBD that gets locked in a savings account on Hive and generates the 10% interest rate. This interest will then be used to pay out tournament winners and whatever else needs funding. So... all in all some very well thought out mechanics. Very exciting times.

I really want this game to be a savage sink and give as much value back to the players as possible.

Again, this is exactly the kind of model I have been talking about for years, and it's finally coming... as soon as January 6th... that's crazy. Can't wait to jump into the fray on this one. If nothing else I am honor bound to support this project just because of the politics of the tokenomics alone. I think this game is going to boosts Dan's reputation here to 11.

No premine, not holding any cards, not a cent goes to me.

Shweet.

Even the HBD account is going to be multi-sig and not controlled by a single person. Again, baller move.

Every year there's going to be a big tournament called Ragnarok and if you're top 100 you're gonna get a split in that interest, plus earn some cards/items.

I have many ideas for these types of games and sinks.
The goal is to burn as much [Hive debt] as possible.

I've always been a gamer at heart but I just don't like the games out there right now.

This is something I can relate to as well.

Crypto has kind of ruined me in this respect. When I see where the ball is going and how easy it will be to be a professional gamer inside a WEB3 atmosphere I simply can't go back to WEB2. I just have to wait for the real games to get built (or build them myself). Gamers must own the content they create on a core level.

Conclusion

The price of BTC doesn't matter, but the on-chain analysis and off-chain analysis are looking pretty good going into one of the most bullish months of the year. Prepare yourselves for Degen December.

More importantly than that, Hive should continue to move up or at least hold this $2-$3 level while the airdrop is still in play. No promises on January 7th, but I expect a huge Hive pump around 1-3 days before the airdrop on Jan 6th. I'll be looking to take small speculative gains with the intent of buying back in 1-3 days after the airdrop goes out (say January 10th). The dip may be short-lived but there definitely will be a dip nonetheless. A double-airdrop double-pump can't avoid a dip in my experience.

Exciting times

Soon™

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