We're finally entering the supply squeeze phase which was suggested by the massive impact of Splinterlands. There were signs across the board for that: the number of new accounts created, and HIVE massively leaving exchanges being the most important. There were also smaller indicators, mostly related to price / volume actions which started to show more correlation, and leave the choppy pattern we've seen until a month or two ago.
Time for a little exercise of imagination. If this sounds very far fetched, then remember the biggest outlier is not what we don't know, but what we don't know that we don't know.
So, the highest value of a token on this blockchain was reached in January 3, 2018, and it was $8.19. More than 3 years ago, almost 4 years. Since that ATH, a lot happened. HIVE forked form that codebase and community and it is now a separate blockchain. A lot of development happened over the course of just a little over one year and we're yet to see the actual impact of it.
How High Can It Go?
So far gaming and podcasting (audio / video web3) seem to lead the way in terms of activity. A lot of new accounts are created specifically for that. And I mean, A LOT. More than 10k accounts per day, which used to be, not until long ago, the number of accounts active across the entire blockchain on a month.
In my humble opinion, it won't be long until these accounts will realize there is a lot more you can do on the same blockchain they joined for a game, and we will see a massive migration towards the social media component.
Social media has this tendency to become viral. It may have a lower affinity than gaming, but it does have a significantly larger reach. In layman terms, convinced gamers are extremely engaged, but they are fewer than social media commenters, which may ride the wave of some trends, every now and then, with a lower engagement, but over a larger time span.
This means the dynamic of social media is different than gaming. It's not as explosive, and it walks along the path of crypto adoption: slowly, then suddenly. It's like what happened to Bitcoin, which struggled for years, back and forth between regulation, China banning, with a little progress now and then in some jurisdictions, until: BOOM! It just became legal tender in a real country. We're less than a week until this will roll out in El Salvador, but it seems there's no way back at this point. It will happen.
Now, imagine the same impact, at the HIVE blockchain. And try to do a little bit of a correlation with the last ATH.
So, a $8 HIVE would definitely be a plausible price level, even if, at this moment, it seems extremely far fetched, more than 10x up from where we are now.
I do see it happening slowly, then suddenly.
Of course, this is not financial advice, DYOR and never invest more than you can lose.