With a spot ETF now out in the wild for Bitcoin and a constant push for a Ethereum spot ETF the price and cycles of bitcoin is become more trackable just like the stock market which constantly goes through cycles. Today let's take a look at factors that now play a part in Bitcoins price.

Normal Factors

There are now normal factors which also play into the stock market that now affect $BTC due to the fact of it having a direct and increasing exposure to it.

If you start to look at the stock market such as the S&P 500 we can see a coloration of ATH's hitting at the same time.

Inflation

Inflation is often thought of as a reason for crashes in the markets. With a higher inflation number people begin to worry that we will see increased rates which make it harder to borrow money thus slowing down the economy. Thus crypto should also take a hit right? That hasn't been the case as we continue to see both continue to reach new ATH over and over again during all of this high inflation.

Passive Flows

It's something that's not often looked at but happens all the time in the stock market. In fact it's now working it's way into the crypto space now with the ETF approval. This is a result of automated buying and selling through pension funds. These passive flows continue to bring money into the market and simply just continue to fuel the markets.

Unless something crazy happens these systems continue to buy but when there's a drastic shift they often shut down and wait for a period of time before they restart up.

This seems to be the case with BTC via the ETFs system. These passive flows have mainly stopped now and not to worry it's part of the cycle that happens all the time. However it's expected that these flows wont go back into a buying cycle again for another few weeks.

Now you can't discount other factors that also play into this as the ETF market for Bitcoin is still small while money outside of it continues to flow it. Unlike the stock market which fully relies on this (and why we could see a hard crash in the stock market in the next few months (a correction). It doesn't play as major of a part in bitcoin. What does is the shorts and longs which all but got liquidated in the last few days as bitcoin sold off hard.

The 67,000 Target

Right now Bitcoin has a target of around 67,000 which it should rally to within the next few days if not shorter. Once hit it's either going to jump in price or a harder correction to follow.

Right now the pressure seems negative as inflows have stopped and the overall sentiment of BTC seems to be wearing off of the hype factor lately. Now remember we are talking about in the short term here over the next few weeks not until the end of 2024.

It's very possible that BTC could fall for Q2 and just continue a downtrend. Mainly from what I wrote about in a previous article here: Is Institutional Investing Even Happening?

Thus giving the entry point for real instructional investing to happen at a sell off price which isn't expected until the end of Q2 moving into Q3 or summer time rally! This puts the theory of a record high BTC price by end of 2024 and moving into 2025 at simply explosive.

Now of course a lot has to go right, timing has to be right and the actions need to take place but this is currently what many are right now speculating will happen in the next 18 months with bitcoin.

What are you thoughts?