Follow your bias and you'll end up following alike people that could and probably will fall into the same trap as you. I don't know how much sense this introduction quote makes, but I've thrown it anyway.
I have followed tons of crypto analysts over the years, I've done that via youtube, Twitter, and Hive and over time I have filtered these characters a lot. It's not because they were wrong, cuz at the end of the day, all of them are wrong, some more than others though. It's because some were getting annoying, stubborn and insanely wrong.
I am following closely some Twitter accounts lately and all these people are doing is point toward the macro for Bitcoin and coming day after day after day with their "biased proof" that the bear market is over, the trend shall change, and that we should at least have a mini bull run until the mega halving ignited one.
It makes sense, or better said, it fits my bias because, after almost one year of a continuous downtrend, it was about time for Bitcoin to change direction. We're still in quite a tight range, $18,5k to $20k, but the bulls seem to be back at it once again. @toofasteddie showed us in a recent post that the top 100 whales are no longer in hibernation mode.
What does that mean? It's probably feeding time again for them, meaning that Bitcoin is once again attractive for these large entities. Whales are represented as smart money, smart money is usually ahead of the curve, although smart money can act quite stupid sometimes, it's just that they have more money and can manipulate the market easier than we plebs can imagine.
We had a double top that occurred in the span of six months and an almost full year of a downtrend for BTC from the end of 2020 until now. Aren't you entertained?
Bitcoin looks terrible struggling to claim $20k, though, but only if you don't get the message, or get fooled by the continuous worldwide provoked FUD and expect banks to do better than Bitcoin/crypto in the next few decades. If not, then why wait for $12k so you can load up on it? I'm not going to say it's not going to happen, I don't have a crystal ball to read into the future, but $19k seems like a hell of a bargain to me.
I have almost 90% of my assets staked and although I can feel that the trend is about to change, I'm not going to unstake anything yet. It doesn't feel like the time's right for now... I am not a trader, thus I will not try and trade the waves that are coming. I'm actually after the big and dirty tsunami I've been waiting for all my life.
When I started loading up on EGLD(my main holding) a few months ago I've done that by nailing a selling target of at least the previous ATH. That's a bit over $500 and EGLD is pushing strongly for the past couple of days. It's gone from $45 to $55 quite fast I'd say. I don't know what's fueling its rise and frankly, I don't care.
I'm after the big bull and my gut feeling tells me we're not going to see it until like mid-2024 or something like that. 2023 is probably going to be a better year than 2022 has been, but the way I see it only good traders can profit from what's about to come. I am not a good trader, I know that.
Hence, I'm keeping it staked and I'm taking every rally with a grain of salt. Although I believe we can see BTC getting to $30,000 by EOY, I don't rule out the possibility of it revisiting the $20,000 area soon after reaching that level, just so that more weak hands get shaken and exchanges make more money on liquidating positions. As I said in a few posts already, the bottom has to be a process and not just a wick down and I believe we've scratched the bottom for quite some time now.
Don't expect any moon landing any time soon, but look around at how the world is transforming and ask yourself if you would like to be left out of the crypto revolution in the middle of these shitty times we're living. That's about it for today, I hope everyone has a great day/evening, and see you tomorrow.
Thanks for your attention,
Adrian