In a recent post that received a lot of views I highlighted a scientific study which claimed to show that imperfect (leaky) vaccines can both increase transmission of a virus and also create an environment where virus variants are empowered to emerge, resulting in an overall negative effect. I also showed simple data that demonstrates that COVID19 cases often increase after vaccine rollouts. I have since dug deeper into this and received positive and negative feedback, which I will take into consideration into this deeper dive.
First of all, there is no doubt that this is a very complicated topic that has many twists and turns. Most of us have never studied virology in much detail and I myself am not professionally trained in a medical field. I am, however, professionally trained in systems engineering which means high level problem solving and analysis. Our body and entire being is a form of system and so it has been natural for me to apply myself to understanding health for my own purposes – partially using these skills. It is also natural for me to want to share what I learn with others and in general people are appreciative of most of what I share.
In this situation I do not have access to labs or large enough resources to run experiments and demonstrate conclusively what I am saying one way or another. So please bare that in mind – I am just using logic and aiming to be objective while using my time to listen to a wide variety of voices (typically focusing on amplifying ones that the mainstream denies in order to ensure that they get heard and that we get to find out if they may have something valuable to add to humanity’s understanding).
For those who question what use it is for someone who is not 'official' to comment on such things, I refer you to the story of the African hero, Kihura Nkuba, who saved many lives - risking his own - when Uganda was forcibly injecting many people (And killing them) with live Polio virus a few decades ago. His story answers your question. Every voice needs to be heard and may hold important puzzle pieces.
Are COVID19 vaccines perfect?
As far as I am aware, no professional has publicly claimed that the COVID19 vaccines are perfect. All medical interventions carry a risk of failure and also usually a risk of injury. However, the subject of just how effective or ineffective they are is an ongoing debate. The waters are heavily soiled by mainstream manipulators, such as the Australian Daily Mail editor who was exposed telling journalists to deliberately rubbish any stories they may right which might possibly make vaccines look bad.
COVID19 vaccines ARE imperfect, they are classed as being ‘leaky’. This means that they do not completely stop transmission of the virus between people. They also are not 100% effective at stopping disease from becoming present in those who contract the SARS CoV2 virus.
This has been demonstrated in numerous ways, including this study on the Pfizer COVID19 vaccine from 11th August, 2021:
Evaluation of mRNA-1273 SARS-CoV-2 Vaccine in Adolescents
As we can see in Figure 3, the efficacy of the vaccine drops significantly for cases with less symptoms of COVID19 but who are still carriers of SARS CoV2. The group who received the vaccine demonstrate the vaccine to appear to be effective at reducing the number of cases of more serious illness when compared to the group who received the placebo (no vaccine being given). However, the vaccine did not appear to significantly reduce the number of cases of people carrying the SARS CoV2 virus, with a smaller number of symptoms or who simply just carried the virus without symptoms. Some have pointed out that the data here appears to have been skewed to give the impression of an efficacy of 90% or more, when in truth the overall efficacy is much lower, perhaps averaging at around 50%.
Source: Figure 3. nejm
This shows that the vaccine does not always prevent infection and thus cannot also stop transmission. The vaccine is therefore imperfect and ‘leaky’.
Can COVID19 Vaccines Drive Transmission of SARS CoV2?
Clearly, a vaccine that does not prevent transmission, but which is being used as a ticket to enter otherwise locked down environments, could be said to be adding to the risk of transmission. People may believe that they cannot transmit the virus or host it due to their vaccination, when this simply is not the case. The drive to have as many people vaccinated as possible would result in less transmission and more safety IF the vaccines were fully effective, but they are NOT.
So just due to the ‘false sense of security’ aspect of the situation, the vaccines can be said to be driving increased transmission in some senses. However, this is not to say that the vaccines actually make transmission more possible per se.
The real risk of increased transmission from such ‘leaky’ vaccines is that the infected human, lacking symptoms, is more able to move around and thus enables the transmission of viruses that would not normally be able to transmit to others due to the host being incapacitated. In the bird study that I linked previously the example was given of animals infected with the most lethal variants of a virus dying off before they could transmit the virus to others – with leaky vaccines making this more likely. While no-one is saying that we should just allow people to die in order to protect everyone else, the vaccines do enable transmission to take place that would otherwise not be possible.
Can COVID19 Vaccines Drive Emergence of New Variants?
This is perhaps the most controversial part of the topic here. There have, as it turns out, been several high profile experts – including French virologist Luc Montagnier (a nobel laureate and the discoverer of the HIV virus) – who have stated that the vaccines are driving the creation of the variants. He and others have cited several mechanisms by which these vaccines can instigate and allow the emergence of new variants.
Professor Montagnier, carrying out his own experiments, was quoted as saying:
“I will show you that they are creating the variants that are resistant to the vaccine”
Several commenters on Twitter responded to my previous post on this topic (after the post itself ‘went viral’) stating that the post was meaningless because the study I referenced was pre-COVID and was focused in Bird populations. However, there actually are several studies that relate to this in humans and clearly high profile experts concur that the risk is real.
A study in 2007 on Pneumococcal virus strains appears to demonstrate how vaccine ‘pressure’ on the evolution of the virus may have caused a new strain to take hold:
We cannot be absolutely certain that ST69519A strains never existed pre-vaccination, but extensive surveillance pre- and post-vaccination in the US failed to reveal any such strains [14,31], and no such strains have been reported to the MLST database from other parts of the world. Hence, even if these strains did exist pre-vaccination they were likely to be very rare, and it could still be maintained that the immune pressure resulting from PCV7 use selected for the emergence of such strains.
Source: Vaccine Escape Recombinants Emerge after Pneumococcal Vaccination in the United States - PLOS
Numerous other medical professionals of various kinds have agreed for various reasons that imperfect vaccines can drive variant evolution. The recent video that I shared of Dr. Daniel Stock is just one example that I have to hand.
Here’s a quote from the UK Government website in a report on the long term evolution of SARS CoV 2 which also highlight the risk of virus variants gaining emergence through vaccinated people:
we propose that research be focused on vaccines that also
induce high and durable levels of mucosal immunity in order to reduce infection of and transmission from vaccinated individuals. This could also reduce the possibility of variant selection in vaccinated individuals.
Source: UK GOV
So while I am not able to guarantee to you that I personally know what is occurring with any particular variant of SARS CoV 2 at any moment in any given person, I am fairly confident that through a variety of mechanisms, the mass vaccination of people with imperfect vaccines can indeed cause a greater risk of the emergence of newly selected viral variants.
How great is the risk? I cannot say for sure – but this brings us back to the 2nd part of this topic which I covered in my original post several days ago.
Do Vaccine Drives Increase Transmission Of the Virus?
In my previous post I provided graphs that show how the recorded cases of COVID19 increase substantially shortly after major pushes for vaccination within several countries. I was then informed that someone else had already published the same finding but from 90 countries (I then included this data in the post as an update). In short, the basic, publicly available data for COVID cases (based on PCR analysis) shows that fairly consistently, the cases recorded of COVID 19 correlate closely to the number of vaccines being issued – with cases following vaccination. This strongly suggests that the vaccinations are generating cases.
This is not a simple situation to analyse correctly without a lab and a team. One reason for this is that the vaccines themselves essentially introduce an amount of the genetic sequence being used to test for SARS CoV2 into the person being vaccinated. Therefore, it is reasonable to think that vaccination may cause some people to test positive for COVID19 as a sickness/disease when the test is simply identifying the presence of the virus having been introduced by vaccination but without it posing any risk. However, since we know that people who test positive for the virus can transmit it to others, what may begin as a positive case due to vaccination could then expand into other people being infected by someone who picked up the virus from the vaccine and on and on it goes.
Viral ‘shedding’ is very much a real phenomena following vaccinations and several vaccinations are known to potentially result in others being infected after the vaccination is administered. Some vaccinations come with a warning to stay away from pregnant women for this reason. This archived FDA document shows how the flu virus in an influenza vaccine was known to be spread nasally to unvaccinated people following administration – this is ‘shedding’.
With this in mind, here are some new graphs that were posted to Twitter today by user @OutsideAlan. These graphs show a clearer representation of the relationship between vaccination rates and deaths from COVID19 in numerous countries.
A significant spike in deaths proceeds a big spike in vaccinations. The big spike in vaccinations is followed by a spike in deaths almost the same size. It's reasonable to imagine that following a spike in the number of deaths reported/published, that people would agree in large numbers to be vaccinated. The number of deaths following vaccination does indeed seem to closely follow the amount of vaccines administered.
Clearly there were large spikes of deaths pre vaccination rollout. The closeness with which the recent spike matches the vaccine rollout may or may not be significant. The data does not discount the idea that vaccinations are driving deaths in the recent spike. Overall, I'd say this data is neutral.
Vaccination rate here follows the increase in deaths, but there is no clearly probable connection to be drawn in terms of causation. Fear of the death could be driving vaccination rate or the connection could be the other way around.
Trinidad & Tobago
The death rate here was very low until the vaccine was introduced and then a giant wave of deaths began. Although we do not know for sure, I might hypothesize from this that perhaps a new variant was introduced via vaccination that was particularly deadly.
Mortality here was low until three months into the vaccination rollout where a large peak in death followed a similar peak in vaccinations.
The data here seems a little synthetic and may contain errors, however, it appears to show a large spike of vaccination and then a similar large spike of deaths nearly 3 months later. This could be a coincidence, data error or could be the result of the healthcare system or other factors resulting in newly infected people somehow collectively lasting 3 months.
There are no cases of COVID19 mortality at all until the rollout of the vaccines. Levels of mortality seem to mirror the amount of vaccinations somewhat but mostly occur 4 months later.
In general it may be reasonable to say that the vaccine rollout correlated to a slight reduction in mortality until June where both vaccination and mortality dramatically increased in concert with each other.
The giant spike in mortality may be an error, I am not sure. However, there were generally not many deaths at all - but the numbers certainly increased somewhat during the vaccine rollout.
Hardly any deaths until about 5 weeks after the vaccine rollout, at which time a large increase in deaths was seen.the vaccine rollout closely follows the mortality levels. At some points the deaths are greater than the vaccination and then later the vaccinations move higher than the deaths. The closeness of these lines is significant since after the start of June it is the vaccinations that proceed the deaths.
In general there seems to be little correlation between vaccinations and mortality until early June, when a large increase in vaccinations proceeds a similarly large increase in deaths.
Numerous high waves of mortality have hit Iran hard prior to vaccination rollout. As with several other regions, initial vaccine rollout seems to coincide with a drop in mortality, but then mortality shoots up a few weeks later as vaccination rates increase dramatically.
Mortality was relatively low and steady until 5 weeks after the vaccine rollout, at which time the mortality shot up significantly.
Vaccine rollouts seem to bare little correlation to mortality but the vaccine levels are low.
There were no COVID deaths recorded at all until 2 months after the vaccine rollout began. Mortality then spiked in concert with vaccination levels.
A large spike in deaths prior to vaccine rollout was followed by vaccine uptake that closely follows mortality until July/August where there has been a sharp increase in vaccination shortly followed by a sharp increased in mortality.
In this case, deaths are dropping seemingly in response to vaccine rollouts. This is the first region to display what we might expect to see in a successful vaccination rollout - namely less death following vaccinations.
Several of the large vaccination spikes are followed by similar spikes in mortality.
Mortality was spiking both before and during vaccination. I can't really conclude anything meaningful or of interest.
The second mass of deaths coincides with vaccine rollouts but not in a way that implies possible causation by the vaccines.
The data here from 20 countries contains a range of observations - ranging from alarming to not alarming at all. In a minority of cases mortality was either positively affected (improved) following vaccination. However, in many cases there are clear increases in mortality following vaccine rollouts. In more than one case there was zero or almost zero COVID19 mortality before vaccines were rolled out!
One thing to note is that many regions exhibit a sharp increase in mortality in July and August, this may be due to normal seasonal virus patterns however.
I strongly urge all who have the means to pay attention to this situation, ask questions and prompt for more thorough analysis and research into this topic.
The absolute truth will emerge eventually, whatever it may be!
Wishing you well,
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