We’re about a quarter of the way through the Group Stage of the Cricket World Cup with 11 of 45 games completed so far. It is still early in the tournament but with every team now having played 2 games it’s enough to start to see how teams are performing and what the strengths and weaknesses of their form are. I won’t go through every team in detail because some have performed predictably. I’ll try to focus instead on some of the more the surprising developments and the front-runners.
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Probably the biggest surprise to the upside is South Africa. They put on a massive score of 428 against Sri Lanka first up and blew Australia off the pitch in their second game. They clearly are packing a very powerful batting lineup and the bowling attack looks pretty solid too with good pace and spin options. Not many had South Africa in the Top 4, but they look really good so far.
The other standout is New Zealand. They upset England in the World Cup Opener and have gone on to dispatch weaker rivals Netherlands and Bangladesh with relative ease. With 3 wins on the board and pundits expecting that 6 wins of 9 games in the Group Stage will earn qualification, they are already half way to the semi-finals.
Unquestionably the biggest loser is Australia. They were beaten comfortably by India in Chennai after failing to adapt to the local spinning conditions before going on to be trounced by South Africa. That 2nd game was a massive concern with an abundance of dropped catches and sloppy play in all areas. Australia is usually a class outfit but they are 2nd last after 2 games and need to turn things around very quickly to have any hope of qualifying for the finals.
The other loser is Sri Lanka. There wasn’t any huge expectations for Sri Lanka to win the World Cup, but they were expected to be competitive after recently making the Asia Cup Final. They’ve dropped games to South Africa and Pakistan which were both games they would have wanted to win to have a hope of making the next stage. They will win a few games from here but I don’t see them qualifying for the Final 4 with this poor start.
Both India and Pakistan are also sitting on 2 wins from 2 games but this was mostly expected and both had an easy game so it’s too early to get carried away with their early form. I do expect both India and Pakistan to be very hard to beat in Indian conditions with local support and I have placed a value bet on Pakistan at 12.00 to Win the Cup.
England similarly is hard to call early. They copped a surprise upset against New Zealand before demolishing Bangladesh. If they can find some consistency they will be pushing for a spot in the Final 4 but I would not be surprised if they miss.
Unfortunately it looks like Bangladesh, Afghanistan and Netherlands will just be making up the numbers this World Cup. That will not be a big surprise but still a disappointment for their fans and those who drew them in my Sweep.