Good info , you know your coins.
In my opinion it is very simple :
Every miner just wants the best bang for his bucks. If it is more profitable to mine ETC , miners will switch ( I think I am one of the rare idiots refusing to do so on moral grounds ) to that chain.
Traders will do what they always do : speculate , if they find opportunity to do so on the ETC chain - they will.
I have made a post similar to yours.
RE: ETC/ETH Market Manipulation and Why Everyone Looses