I wanted to start off this entry with a "rumors of my death" quip but opted against it. It's trite and frankly, I think I've already used that line dozens of times. I've been busy not only opening my bookstore but also reconstituting my tutoring company in the US, so commenting on Chinese and/or Russian politics has not been my principal focus. However, with the world's media now focused on the Putin-Xi summit and the... eh, somehow apparently shocking (???) synergy shown between the emperor in Beijing and his puppet in Moscow, it seemed the time was right to speak up. So in this article, I'm going to highlight all the major changes in the world order that were heralded by this summit, and by the declaration of the two dictators that they are united against the Eeeeeeeeeevil scheming West.
(Deep breath...)
There were none.
I just... I really can't put it any other way. The summit itself didn't reveal anything that the world didn't already know about the partnership. The meeting itself did not signal any huge paradigm shift. It really was a lot of hot air. Those in the West who are biting their nails (or in the Middle East who are rubbing their palms) about the prospect of some long-awaited / long-feared #dragonbear alliance finally making its move, are at this point sitting and blinking and telling themselves "well that was awkwardly anticlimactic." Contrary to all the hype, this was not some grand "at last we shall reveal ourselves to the Jedi" moment from Darth Xi-dious and his apprentice, Putin.
The only thing I found eyebrow-raising about it was the submissive tone from Vladimir Putin. It's not like him to so openly admit that he's the subordinate standing next to his boss with an assignment to nod, smile and agree. But I'm getting ahead of myself. For now, let me explain why the summit was, in fact, a frightening revelation, but not for any of the reasons the world seems to think.
"When Russian and Chinese leaders get together, one of the buzzwords they use to discuss their policies is “multipolarity." ...Their issue is not with a unipolar world. Their issue is that they themselves are not the ones calling the shots."
-Jacob L. Shapiro, Geopolitical Futures (2017)
It's really hard for me to listen to this phrase from Chinese and Russian talking heads at this point without yawning. We've been hearing this from them for years (you did notice that the above quote was from 2017 and was analyzing an already-decade-long trend in word choice, right?). Yes, during the joint press conference at the end of the meeting, both leaders reaffirmed their ironclad commitment to... eh, what was it again? I forget.
My point is that we have heard these big speeches before. At the 2022 Covilympics in Beijing the two leaders made a huge show of their "treaty of eternal friendship." And what became of that? What aid did China give to their "eternal ally" as soon as the war went south? Other than echoing Russia's propaganda on Chinese networks so China's slobbering, snorting, baijiu-belching peasant population would continue mindlessly believing "Ah-NeE-wAn Hu Iz FiTe Da EvIl YoO-EsSa Iz Da GuD gAi.... (drool)", not much really. And beneath all the durm and strang (1), the press conference really showed no signs that this was changing (Kaplan).
In essence, "multipolarity" is a word China and Russia use to appeal to the "we want an alternative to the West" crowd. The plain truth is that neither Russia (whose entire national identity is predicated on believing that they are the "Third Rome") nor China (whose entire foreign policy for most of their history has been built on the belief that all other nations were barbarians and China had a Heaven-given mandate to unite the world under them) is interested in a "multipolar" world but they would both love to be the unipole. However, nothing coming out of this particular meeting is going to result in that happening any time soon (Friedman).
Russia was almost undoubtedly hoping that China would roll up their sleeves and say "okay, we're backing Russia" now, but China recognizes a fight they can't win and as such, Xi's pomp and pandering contained no commitment to anything solid. They're simply going to use Russia up, just as they did with North Korea before them, before finding another vassal to throw at the West in their desperate hope that the West wears down before China's rapidly-dwindling economic model runs out of steam.
There has been a lot of talk about how Russia's announcement that they were going to use the RMB instead of the USD in their oil transactions is a threat to the supremacy of the US Dollar (Stognei). Notwithstanding that the so-called "supremacy" of the US dollar is already more than a little bit overstated (and Washington should thank God for that because if you want to know what happens when your currency is widely circulated outside your borders without your currency controls or even your knowledge, ask the Republic of Venice), I have to ask a question to anybody who was frightened by that declaration.
What were you expecting?
Let's consider this. A nation (Russia) which is now unable to access US dollars or spend them (due to a dizzying package of sanctions), and which has no wealthy nation still willing to purchase their oil (Russia's only economic lifeline) other than China, has chosen to denominate their oil transactions (which are almost exclusively transacted with China at this point) in the currency of China (their only major customer and the only wealthy nation still willing to do business with them) instead of US dollars (which they can neither get nor use).
Take out the parenthetical notations and ask yourself if this still seems newsworthy. This is basically a drunken brawler who just got kicked out of the club when he tried to put his hands on a woman half his size and she kicked his ass for it, walking into a dive bar down the street and bragging that he's never going back to the club he just got kicked out of.
Don't get it twisted. Russia would still love to have US dollars and even a newspaper owned by HNA group publicly admits that in a China-circulated article (Lee & He), with their own links to said article proclaiming that the Yuan's rise is "all talk."
To my American readers, think of it this way: if Kroger tells you "your patronage is no longer welcome," and Brookshires tells you "you will be arrested for trespassing if you come here again," you're probably going to dump your Kroger and Brookshires gift cards and start looking for ones from H.E.B, aren't you?
This doesn't mean H.E.B. is winning the grocery wars. It means they now have a captive customer: you.
If Amazon and Wal-Mart both block you from their website, you're going to start doing a lot of your online shopping on ebay. It doesn't mean ebay is overtaking Wal-Mart or Amazon. It means they have you by the balls. And if Kroger and Brookshires in the first analogy, or Amazon and Wal-Mart in the second one, were surprised (or frightened) by your decision, then they're a bit foolish and, quite frankly, a bit paranoid.
It doesn't mean China is ascending.
It doesn't mean a new Russia-China alliance (at least in the sense of the two as equals) is rising (at least in the sense of doing anything new).
It means Russia has now been weakened enough that they are forced to acknowledge their vassalage to China (Patriamreminisci, Samuel, Gabuev), a status they have feared was coming for quite some time (Tselichtchev).
And if the US and EU are frightened by a nation with a GDP smaller than the US State of Texas abandoning a currency we ourselves have been staggeringly effective at completely cutting them off from, then we are elephants having nightmares about an iguana and a mouse conspiring against us when the truth is the iguana just ate the mouse.
I already commented nearly a year ago that in both Chinese and Russian culture it is almost universally the subordinate who is summoned to travel and the superior who awaits their arrival. The only time this is not the case is when the superior is going to the far reaches of his domain, leaving behind the pleasures of power, to render judgment upon a subordinate who has failed. Considering that this visit came as an apparent surprise to Putin, and considering that Xi arrived in Moscow on day 389 of Putin's five-day operation in Ukraine, it's fairly easy to imagine a scene like this.
Putin: "The... the emperor? The emperor is coming HERE?"
Qin Gang: "That is correct. And he is most displeased with your apparent lack of progress!"
Indeed, the biggest thing that actually was noteworthy about the summit, and the entire Russian media ballet surrounding it, was the sycophantic tone from Russian officials toward not Putin, but Xi.
"A big, giant, powerful and authoritative country like China can't fail to have its own voice on those problems that stand high on the world agenda... We pay great attention to all the ideas we hear from our colleagues in Beijing."
-Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov
This is the same fawning, worshipfully sycophantic tone Lukashenko strikes when referring to Russia, and here the spokesman for the seat of Russian power has put it on in reference to the entire nation of China. And not only Peskov. Putin himself normally parades about as some kind of self-made demigod. I have commented before on how his carefully sculpted macho image worked well in earning a lot of admiration from many in the West, myself included, before he blew it by attacking Ukrainian grannies and losing.
And yet, the message from Putin's mouth was not "here stands my comrade, Xi, who is in full agreement with my treaty plan for Ukraine." It was not even "we have agreed on a peace proposal for Ukraine." It was "Xi's peace plan (2) is wonderful."
There was not a single mention of his own plans or agenda at all. Putin himself framed the meeting as "Um, yeah. So, like, China's great and we're super-honored to be in the presence of the leader of mighty China."
In other words, once again, Putin took the same tone toward Xi that Lukashenko takes toward Putin.
Of course, we've been seeing China's takeover of Russia happening de facto for years. From Russian gas fields being used exclusively for China's benefit while Russians are denied access to them (Shtepa) to massive factories in Russia owned by Chinese companies where Chinese migrants get jobs but Russians are not allowed to work (Kogan), it's been so out-in-the-open that even Russians themselves have complained about it. What's different is that now we're witnessing the heads of state behaving in a manner that no longer tries to hide it.
See, the one and only thing that the summit actually did reveal, the thing that was mentioned last of all in this article and probably seems the least significant, is the one that should be giving every General west of the Black Sea or east of Hong Kong nightmares. Why? Because what I'm seeing from the change in manners between these two is that #Dragonbear isn't a Russia-China alliance. It's a Chinese takeover of Russia! And frankly, considering the experience of my years living among the Shi-na Minzoku, that scares me more than an alliance between them ever would.
An "alliance" could be broken. It would be easy to drive a wedge between two dictators. We wouldn't have to invent reasons for them to distrust each other. All we'd have to do would be leave them alone for a few years and the natural inclination of dictators to see threats everywhere would lead them to turn on each other. The Chinese have betrayed (or been betrayed by) their so-called "allies" about once per decade for 25 centuries. But a takeover means China is going to have free access to Siberia's vast mineral wealth (which the Russians and Soviets never could quit dragging their knuckles long enough to develop but you can bet your ass the Chinese will) for a long, long time. Because once the Chinese take something over, once they declare it to be theirs, it's hard as hell to pry it from their hands.
Just ask a Tibetan.
(1) This is "sturm and drang" bought from Aliexpress.
(2) Xi's so-called "peace plan," submitted more than a month ago, was an outright unconditional surrender by Ukraine and acknowledgment of Russian sovereignty over the presently occupied parts of its territory [in blatant violation of the UN Charter which Russia and China so frequently swear by] as well as a permanent commitment to unilateral disarmament, an agreement to abstain from seeking any redress for war crimes committed by Russia or from even seeking any investigation into them, and granting Russia the right to veto any treaty or international agreement Ukraine might seek to enter into [this last is described as "neutrality" in an attempt to make it more palatable for propaganda purposes], with no concessions from the defeated invader.
Friedman, George. "China and Russia." Geopolitical Futures. 28 Feb, 2023. Web. 26 Mar, 2023. https://geopoliticalfutures.com/china-and-russia/
Gabuev, Alexander. "China’s New Vassal - How the War in Ukraine Turned Moscow Into Beijing’s Junior Partner." Foreign Affairs. 9 Aug, 2022. Web. 26 Mar, 2023. https://www.foreignaffairs.com/china/chinas-new-vassal
Kaplan, Fred. "The Big Takeaway From Xi’s Summit With Putin." Slate. 22 Mar, 2023. Web. 26 Mar, 2023. https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2023/03/xi-putin-china-russia-summit-ukraine.html
Lee, Amanda & He Huifeng. "China-Russia trade surge lifts yuan use, but Russians would ‘give right arm’ for US dollars". 24 Mar, 2023. Web. 26 Mar, 2023. South China Morning Post. https://www.scmp.com/economy/global-economy/article/3214596/china-russia-trade-surge-lifts-yuan-use-russians-would-give-right-arm-us-dollars
Patriamreminisci. "Новое Китайское Иго; How the Ukraine War has Brought Russia Into Vassalage to Their Oldest and Greatest Enemy." Peakd. 16 Mar, 2022. Web. 26 Mar, 2023. @patriamreminisci/novoe-kitajskoe-igo-how-the-ukraine-war-has-brought-russia-into-vassalage-to-their-oldest-and-greatest-enemy
Samuel, Juliet. "Putin’s Russia is already learning the cost of becoming a vassal state of Xi’s China." The Telegraph. 16 Sep, 2022. Web. 26 Mar, 2023. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/09/16/putins-russia-already-learning-thecost-becoming-vassal-state/
Shapiro, Jacob L. "Russia and China’s Alliance of Convenience." Geopolitical Futures. 27 Dec, 2017. Web. 26 Mar, 2023. https://geopoliticalfutures.com/russia-chinas-alliance-convenience-1/
Shtepa, Vadim.
Stognei, Anastasia. "Russia embraces China’s renminbi in face of western sanctions." Financial Times. 25 Mar, 2023. Web. 26 Mar, 2023. https://www.ft.com/content/65681143-c6af-4b64-827d-a7ca6171937a
Tselichtchev, Ivan. "Chinese in the Russian Far East: a geopolitical time bomb?." South China Morning Post. 8 Jul, 2017. Web. 27 Mar, 2023. https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/geopolitics/article/2100228/chinese-russian-far-east-geopolitical-time-bomb
