I am a fan of Bitcoin, Altcoins and the big daddy of it all, the underlying technology ‘Blockchain’.
I HODL, buy and sell these cryptos (circa 2012) and can see Blockchain transforming industries, creating new opportunities for the entrepreneurial and those with a passion for the frontier spirit.
However, we must understand Bitcoin, and its derivatives are akin to a young and aggressive animal, let loose in an unregulated and widely known manipulated jungle.
When I hear John McAfee who is paid more than $100,000 per tweet (to 224,000 followers) Source making claims that Bitcoin will reach $1Millon by 2020 and that he will eat his own d!£K if it does not Source, it makes me question his motives for doing so in the first place.
His predictive analysis was supposed to be based on some super secret spy technology using quantitative and qualitative analysis. But in reality, predicting anything for $100,000+ (Altcoins and ICO success included) which seems to be based more on personal (gain) and sponsored motivations can be pulled out of a hat. This demonstrates that he holds 'Low Protected Values' and should have anyone with one bit of sense take his 'analysis' with a pinch of salt. Furthermore, it stinks of blatant market manipulation, and he is contributing to overvaluation of cryptocurrencies and encouraging empty pump schemes.
The question is should we be concerned about market manipulation by such well-known celebrities? Well, the answer is a resounding yes when we consider the sheer lack of otherwise trusted advisers in this industry. Especially when we have those with financial expertise and years of experience behind them such as Warren Buffett having their opinions dismissed by the cryptocurrency media just because he speaks openly and honestly and does not promise to eat his 'nether regions' to back up his claims. As to whether actions like McAfee’s paid Tweet promotions are helping or hurting cryptocurrency, it amounts to this: actions that are purposefully done to manipulate markets (i.e. falsely influencing investors to buy an asset at a specified price) are negative for industries. It can lead to assets being incorrectly valued and in the long run lead to negative sentiment among investors. Also, for those new to this unregulated and very young market, armed with very little research and looking to invest, this type of manipulation can be at best be very confusing and may discourage market participation.
As I mentioned earlier, I HODL, buy and sell cryptos. I love them. However, even I agree with Mr Buffett that this is by no means a form of investment Source. If we are all honest with ourselves, we know and invest blindly in this marketplace as Vitalik Buterin said “There’s projects that never had a soul, that are just like, ra-ra, price go up. Lambo, vrromm, buybuybuy now!” Source. I.e. it is all about 'hoping' that a cryptocurrency, as they say, will go to the ‘Moon’ and we will be sitting on a beach somewhere sipping champagne with a Ferrari and a mansion with a helipad.
We know deep in our hearts that Warren Buffett is right and that a Bitcoins fair price cannot be genuinely valued at this point in time. There are no ratios or valuation tools for something that is as young as my nephew who is running around the schoolyard right now! Or for something that really just caught the world's attention a year ago!
Couple that with the use of Trading Bots (used in a coordinated manner) which are known to manipulate the price of a crypto up to 400% per annum Source and the speed at which information travels (genuine, sponsored and fake) through crypto outlets and social media, then how are we supposed to ever in an unregulated market ever hope to expect genuine price discovery for these assets?
Finally, cryptocurrencies were meant to free us from command and control from the global financial establishment. However, with the introduction of Bitcoin Futures through CBOE and CME and the cry for ETF's, are we not welcoming the very establishment we were supposed to have freedom from? I do find it hypocritical that we expect liquidity from these institutions so that the price of Bitcoin can 'Moon'. However, we forget that people like Warren Buffett understand these very same markets, was forged and made $Billions from them. But we dismiss his views without further review, research or education just because it goes against our expectations.
However, when an individual such as John McAfee who promises to eat his own d!£K for a possibly sponsored prediction, supposedly has a history of paranoia, drug use/distribution and being an erratic personality, we all want to buy his story and listen to him….. Source Source Souce!
So you have read through my thoughts and are wondering.....'Hey isn't there a Story about a Sultan and his Flying Horse' in the title?
Well yes, my Compadres and I regale you with this tale to relate the promises of McAfee and time horizons..... Hope you get the message:
"The Sultan [of Persia] had sentenced two men to death.
One of them, knowing how much the sultan loved his stallion, offered to teach the horse to fly within a year in return for his life. The Sultan, fancying himself as the rider of the only flying horse in the world, agreed.
The other prisoner looked at his friend in disbelief. “You know horses don't fly. What made you come up with a crazy idea like that You're only postponing the inevitable.”
“Not so,” said the [first prisoner]. “I have actually given myself four chances for freedom.
First, the Sultan might die during the year.
Second, I might die.
Third, the horse might die.
And fourth ... I might teach the horse to fly!”
-The Craft of Power. R.G. H. Siu, 1979
Source
McAfee our role model :-D