Bitfinex is Bailing In the Entire Bitcoin Market - MtGox 2.0?


Anyone who is watching the bitcoin prices has surely noticed that since Bitfinex re-entered trading, that the price has been depressed, and slowly ebbing downwards. Their 'tokens' I am pretty sure people are selling as quickly as possible for bitcoins, and then they are cashing them out of Bitfinex. I personally think that they are gonna continue to be a downward influence on Bitcoin prices until they go broke.

Why do I think this? Because I was using their platform during the big upward movement in June and then continued to use it until about 2 weeks before the hack. I was doing well for the beginning, but then the volatility was getting way too much for me, and I was seeing 'issue' emails from them way too frequently and there was quite a long outage about a month before the hack happened, and then a quite frequent series of 'issue' emails talking about bandwidth problems. I work in IT support and when we have bandwidth issues in our business, it usually means someone is fucking up somewhere. In our business, it's usually British Telecom, but sometimes smaller suppliers, but more minor issues tend to be caused by bugs and misconfigurations in some of our server farms.

Sure, this is not quite the same as being hacked, but hacking can only occur when a system has weaknesses caused by bugs that can be exploited. The bugs can cause latency and throughput issues all by themselves but they are worse when they are being prodded and probed by hackers looking for a way to gain a shell into one of the machines.

And so then before they came back online, they announced that they were bailing in, 'socialising' the loss. Lucky for me I had no money held with them anymore, but the depression on the price caused by smarter people realising that it's time to get out was the reason for this. Then they double down by issuing their own bullshit debt tokens, which they don't even guarantee they will redeem for bitcoins. So people are grabbing the bitcoins as fast as they can and selling their bitcoins and pushing the resultant USD back to their bank accounts. This is typical bank run behaviour. Bitfinex is probably now late paying back debts and they are scrambling to try and get their books in order, and we, the bitcoin users, are all paying for it.

I expect this to get worse for a while. In fact I'm pulling out all of my positions in Bitcoin. I am pretty sure more bad news about Bitfinex is coming soon and that's gonna drive more selling. I want to move to working with other currencies, but until the biggest one is free of its current big issue, I don't think it's wise to do anything but short it, or stay out.

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