Pretty early, but here's what the GDPNow estimate is for Q3 real GDP. It expects real GDP to increase by 1.4% in Q3. The advance estimate for Q3 GDP will be released at the end of October.
However, GDPNow can change significantly over time. In Q2, the GDPNow model initially expected a positive Q2. It didn't start to decline till June, and eventually turned negative in July.
Real Gross Domestic Income (GDI) increased 1.4% in Q2. Previously real GDI in Q1 was 1.8%.
Real GDP in Q2 was revised upward in the second estimate to -0.6% from -0.9% in the advance estimate. Previously real GDP in Q1 was -1.6%.
The composite average of GDI and GDP called Gross Domestic Output (GDO) was 0.1% in the first quarter and 0.4% in the second quarter. So the composite GDO has yet to turn negative this year. More evidence we aren't in a recession.
In theory GDP and GDI should be equal, but there is a measurement difference. In the literature initial estimates of GDI tend to be more accurate indicators of true economic growth than initial estimates of GDP.
Next GDP revisions will be released at the end of September.
Here are the updates to real gross domestic income and real gross domestic product charted.
As you can see the two have diverged this year. They should in theory be identical, but there are measurement differences.
GDI and the composite average of GDP and GDI both remain positive this year. Combined with the other economic indicators, in particular the strong jobs data, it is hard to make a compelling case we are in a recession.
