I am not an expert, but can't help sharing thoughts, lol.

A -77% correction would place BTC almost exactly at $30k

30K is almost the bottom of the last bull run of BTC. After 2021 ATH, BTC fell to 16K, and that was above all previous highs (except for 19.8K of 2017). Why will BTC perform worse in 2025-2026 in its full glory time?

BTC has become less volatile, but it's not only about highs but lows too.

BTC won't fall lower than 50K or so. It will reach it in 2026 and then turn into accumulation, and bear market fear may fade out. That's when ETH might start climbing/surging to new ATH and that triggers people buying weaker alts - in 2026. Even without ETH, as soon as BTC finds the bottom in 2026 and bear market fear ends, people will start buying alts to speculate. And now - fear makes the small alts market dead.

Altseason isn't about a 4-year cycle, it's about circumstances.

DYOR 😄