What happened since our last look at Hive?
First, I think the observed fractal shift is still holding and we'll have to continue to watch the market to see how this will play out in the future. For more on this check out the last post again.
I then gave a rough outlook for Hive:
I expected Hive to perhaps reach for the long resistance at about $2.4 and then a stark correction back down to the main channel in which it has been trading. So what happened?
Turns out that Hive didn't have enough momentum to reach the upper target. However, we are sitting now exactly at the price which I expected which is at around $1.4. The reason for the high target was A) the airdrops that happened yesterday and B) the fractal shift which suggested this to be a possibility. Yet as I have always stated if we identify a fractal it is only possible to predict the shape of the movement and not exactly how it will play out. I think the observed movement has shown that the fractal shift is still in play as we did have a second peak at around $1.9 which is not that far off target.
More interestingly, Hive is now sitting at the support from the main channel in which it has been trading. This should act as a big support. Nevertheless, I want to give two possible scenarios for the future of Hive. These are macro scale outlooks.
In this chart you can see the strong upward push by Hive over the last several months. We have come a long way from ~ $0.2. This has established an upward diverging channel in which all of Hive's movement took place. I think two scenarios are most likely now. The green bullish one which would see Hive moving within this channel and breaking the important secondary resistance coming from the trend lines of the ATH peaks. If so, I would expect Hive to peak between $10 and $20. This scenario looks really plausible based on the technicals and is not too high of a target. The other scenario, the bearish one, is shown in purple. You can see that we would reach for the main support again. Also notice that the top movement would resemble the old fractal and not the new one which would coincide with its bearish movement. Nevertheless, I would still expect one more bigger push to the top to perhaps $3-4. This would correspond to the lower trend line of the diverging channel which would then become a resistance. Another resistance is from the previous ATH peaks.
I feel quite confident for both of these scenarios in the sense that they both seem very plausible. Obviously, I am rooting for the bullish one ;) But I also favor this scenario because a further correction in BTC seems unlikely since the market should peak in summer 2022. If not, this would mess up the entire crypto (BTC) cycle. But then again, there are only probabilities in this market.
As a general reminder: Please keep in mind that none of this is official investment advice! Crypto trading entails a great deal of risk; never spend money that you can't afford to lose!
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