I try not to think too much about price predictions because I don’t want to set myself up for disappointment. Even if things go well, which I think and hope that they will, I’d rather be pleasantly surprised.
Once in a while it’s still fun to do some thought experiments though. These past few days I’ve seen a lot of predictions for $250,000 bitcoin by the end of the cycle.
$250,000 bitcoin. Let’s make a very conservative prediction for hive at $2.50. That would make me a whole lot richer than I am right now. I imagine exactly what I’ll do if that happens.
At first I thought I would only touch 10 to 15% of my portfolio and leave the rest as it is. These days I’m thinking slightly differently.
I’d likely keep my Hive savings just where they are. I like having a bigger upvote, influence on the network, and keeping money in the ecosystem. The fewer people sell, the lower the supply, and so any demand will raise the price too.
The first things I’ll sell in my portfolio will be any other altcoins that went up more than BTC. I barely hold anything other than BTC, Hive and ETH now, but I still have a bit of chainlink, Cardano, old EOS and Uniswap. If any of these do a 5-10x before BTC, they’ll be the first thing I cash out.
The end goal is to stack as much BTC, ETH, and HIVE as possible.
Before I was thinking of only taking out 10%. Now I’m considering 35-50%. It really depends on how overbought the market is.
If countries are buying bitcoin left and right, if it becomes legalize currency in major countries, or if there is a massive crash in the value of the dollar, I’ll probably stick with around 35%. If the next boom is about million dollar cryptopunks and yield farming from shady liquidity pools, I’ll take out 50%.
Most of what I plan on cashing out will be to buy back in. If I take out 35%, 20% will be to buy back in. If I take out 50%, 35% will be to buy back in. I’ll be pretty patient. I always try my best not to FOMO or FUD. Thinking longing term makes this easy.
The main purpose behind taking profits (aside from reinvesting) will be to make it easier to start a business. 10% of my crypto will go towards this. It may not be enough, but it'll make it a whole lot easier.
I’ve been talking about this for a year and the idea has evolved a lot. I won’t need a ton of capital, but at least don’t want to be pinching pennies everywhere. I think I can get up and running rather quickly once I put all the pieces in place.
There isn’t much of luxury that I’m really after. At some point I’d like to buy a house, and maybe some nice music equipment. Beyond that I can’t think of anything.
Unless bitcoin 20x’s in the next year (not likely), a house in Tokyo isn’t happening right away, though once the business is up and running, maybe I can think about it.
I like good food, but it doesn’t need to be the fanciest. I want to travel, but even if I do, I’ll likely still budget because I don’t see the purpose in splurging.
So really the only thing I spend my money on if I were trying to make life easier is a new computer specifically for making stuff, and a few trips outside of the city. I’d probably visit Kyuushu and Shikoku, the southwestern part of Japan. I’d like to find some interesting communities there. It’s been a while since I’ve seen Kyoto.
Because of the pandemic, not ready to make plans to go overseas yet. But I’ve had my eye on Portugal Spain Germany Indonesia and Africa for a while now. Ideally I’d get to visit a bunch of Hivesters.
I only plan on using 5% of my crypto for life and luxury so hopefully the business will start moving before I plan to go overseas.
I thought about re-investing some of my crypto earnings into stock and gold when bitcoin cools off. I’m not sure if it's time yet. I’ll have to see how the world looks after bitcoin has a 5X.
The best part about starting a business will be being able to hire people and paying people for their services. If I see any opportunities to expand the business quickly and sustainably, I'll put a little more of my crypto into it. I hope to find awesome people who were a little later in this game and give them work they love and pay them well enough. I already know a bunch (😝) and it would be cool to help them live a life that they love even more and live more comfortably.
In that case I will likely use Hive first and if possible, find people who can power up some of what I pay them because I want to keep it in the ecosystem and make this place stronger.
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