What do I learn from SD to STEEM recent exchange rate?

It has been a while since I signed in to Steemit. So far I have hardly paid any attention to the management of the SD that I have earned, thinking that it is too small an amount to be of any concern. However, yesterday SD to Steem exchange gave me a wakeup call. It has fallen to 1.5. I recall two weeks ago, I traded my SD at 3.2.

Shocking! It makes me review my past practice and realize that I have much to learn to protect my earning. Is my past practice a correct way? Definitely not and I should not simply go to the internal market and exchange my SD to Steem at whatever value thereof.

I spent few hours and came to a decision that henceforth I shall follow the following steps in handling my SD:

(1) Options:

Out of the three options for SD: Transfer, Convert and Buy/Sell, I will select Buy/Sell option.

(2) Strategy prospective:

Seek expert advice on near future trend. For example, go to https://steemit.com/@ozchartart

Pay attention to what the analysts have to say. What is the trend? Three possibilities: up, down or flat. How to react? If it is flat, do nothing but keep watching. Buy Steem if it is going up and hold your SD if Steem is falling down.

(3) Tactical prospective:

Observe three signals carefully.

(3.1) Ratio of Steem on sale to Steem being sought after. Look at the two coloured areas, pink is quantity of Steem on sale while green is the Steem being sought after. After some practice, you will have a rough idea what the ratio should be like for Steem buyer to buy Steem.

(3.2) Recent historical transactions give you an idea of its trend. Hold if Steem trends down and buy if trends up.

(3.3) Change in the numbers of sellers in the queue and their price differentials are something to watch. Do not buy if number of sellers increases and price differentials fall. Vice versa, if it happens in the buyer queue, buy the amount of Steem you need.

In closing:

This is what I can come up with after few hours of research. Hopefully, it is a big step to getting fair value for my SD. I know there is much more that I need to know. You can help! Give me your comments below.