A Eurosceptic case for Remain
I'm living on the Continent and I'm Eurosceptic. EU is a clumsy monster, suffocating us with tons of bureaucratic regulations - there's no doubt about that. I'm not buying the Remain campaign scaremongering, I don't think the UK will be worse off leaving the European Union. Sure, it will lose perks of the common market, but the benefits of getting rid of hundreds of nonsensical EU regulations may well outweigh it. I don't trust doom-sayers claiming that a smaller country can't be successful outside of a big entity and I don't believe that in order to be successful the UK will have to kowtow to European rules anyway, like Norway and Switzerland did. There's plenty of counterexamples: think Australia, think New Zealand, think Taiwan, South Korea, Singapore. Also let's not forget that the UK is no Switzerland, British GDP is more than 20% of that of the remaining EU, and this ratio is going to increase. The EU will have to give the UK much more concessions than it gave to Switzerland. And if the UK will combine forces with Switzerland and Norway they'll constitute a formidable economic power to reckon with.
No, I don't think the UK will be worse off after Brexit in the medium term.
But the EU will be worse off after Brexit, and in the long run it will be a big headache not only for the Continent itself but for Britain as well.
There's two possible outcomes of Brexit for the EU.
It may disintegrate, either partly or completely. Other countries – say Denmark or Netherlands - may follow the British lead, and it will start chain reaction. Europe once again will be divided by customs and visas. And while some countries such as Sweden or Germany may succeed even in this situation, most – like Greece, Spain, Italy, Hungary or Croatia will most certainly fail. Not only economically, but politically. Their governments will start to maneuver between the USA and Russia to buy themselves better deal from the both sides. Russian influence in Europe will greatly increase. And while it certainly doesn't mean the end of the West – the West has already survived very similar situation during the Cold War – it will mean a poorer and weaker West, and a poorer and weaker Britain.
If the EU won't disintegrate after Brexit, it will mean a much bigger influence for France and Italy in European decision making. After Britain leaves, the South will get more weigh than the North. Germany won't be able to withstand French claims for more spending and more red tape and higher taxes. The EU will become even more socialist, bureaucratic, indebted and overregulated than it is now. It will be ridden by constant stagnation. But it will still be the UK's biggest trade partner, there's no way around that. When your biggest partner is shaken by crises, you can't really have healthy economic growth.
Also, instead of healthy scepticism of the current American government militaristic policies and its infringement of privacy, almost every French government in recent decades entertain irrational prejudice against about any American policy and equally irrational inclination to forgive Russia its most imperialistic outfits. The EU without the UK will be less pro-Atlantic and more pro-Russian. As a result, the UK will have to spend much more on defense than it does now but still will be less safe.
So, to stay in the EU in its current form is a bad choice for Britain, but to leave it to deteriorate is a not so good choice either. What's left? To stay in and reform!
It's rightfully said that Germany tried to conquer Europe twice by force and failed, but conquered it anyway by commerce. It's not bad thing by itself – Europe lead by the peaceful, hard-working and financially-disciplined Germans of today is certainly better than Europe ruled by today's indebted and overspending French and Italians. Still, it's not good enough. Germans still are too comfy with regulations and unnecessary micromanagement. But it doesn't have to be that way. The EU doesn't have to be lead by Germans and Germans alone. Britain can lead.
It's probably counter-intuitive – Britain has smaller population, smaller economy and smaller weigh in European decision making. That’s how it is today. But tomorrow may be quite different. Eurostat predicts that by 2050 the UK will be the most populous and economically powerful country in European Union (or out of it). But there's no need to wait until 2050. Currently the UK uses its political and economic power to opt-out of European policies instead of changing it. But it's not only British who are not happy with the European state of affairs. If the UK started to push for real reforms to make the Union more free and efficient, instead of negotiating exceptions for itself, it would be joined by many and many people in the Netherlands, Scandinavia, the Czech Republic where I live and even Germany itself. Huge number of Europeans, probably the majority, are demanding changes, but they lack unity and political leadership. Instead of changes they are offered either more of the same, or retreat to the pre-WWII world. But it's not what they really want. They don't want to retreat, they want to go forward, out of the swamp the EU has become. It's possible to transform Europe into the freest and richest common space on the planet led by the UK and start a new century of British and European greatness. All that is needed is political will. Let's take control! Let's take it not back but forward!
