What will the price of Bitcoin be at the end of 2018? Over the past few weeks we’ve seen multiple price predictions for year-end Bitcoin with prices on both ends of the spectrum. We’ll review some of the most notable but first let’s take a look at the yearly performance thus far.
Bitcoin started 2018 at $13,800 having already pulled back from its Mid-December peak near $20,000. Since January, prices have slid an addition 47% and are currently trying to hold above $7,000 support.
The price swings have been significant each month and the biggest single drop was from January 7th to February 6th when prices fell from $17,000 to just under $6,000 before rallying over 90% to get back to $11,700 just two weeks later.
Most recently, we saw a significant low in April around $6,400 which was followed by a rally to $9,900. Prices are once again testing the lows.
Throughout this volatility, the price swings have begun to narrow and the charts are forming a symmetrical pattern which is projected to resolve itself by the end of July 2018. By that I mean we will either see prices break below recent support and make new yearly lows under $6,000 or we will see prices break above the downtrend line and start a new bull rally that would likely get Bitcoin over $10,000 again.
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Tom Lee of Fundstrat Global Advisors is a frequent guest on CNBC and longtime Bitcoin investor. He predicts that Bitcoin prices will rise to $25,000 this year and will go on to hit $125,000 by 2022. Like many anyalsts, he predicts that the second-half of 2018 will see a strong rally with prices reaching new highs.
Arthur Hayes - At the start of this year, Arthur Hayes, the CEO of BitMEX gave $50,000 has his year-end price prediction. Just a few weeks ago, Arthur Hays was interviewed on CNBC’s Fast Money where he stood by his prediction but also made it a point to say that "it was his job to make predictions and whether they were right or wrong really didn't matter."
This is because at the end of the day traders could make money with the volatility by betting on either direction. I would agree. Predictions are easy to make but they ultimately won’t matter because data changes quickly and long term predictions are not used in making short-term trading decisions.
John McAfee – It’s hard to find someone that makes bolder and more outrageous predictions than John McAfee. His biggest prediction is that Bitcoin will be at $500,000 by the end of 2020 and if wrong, he would eat his own d*** on national television. He has since raised the stakes by changing his prediction to $1 million Bitcoin by 2020.
He’s at it again with a recent prediction published on May 22nd where he called for Bitcoin to hit $15,000 by end of June! I suppose anything is possible but asking for a 100% increase in 4 weeks is pretty bold. To be fair, Bitcoin has seen several periods where prices increased that much in less than two months. For everyone’s sake, I’m hoping he is correct on all of his predictions!
Tone Vays is known for being a Bitcoin maximalist, yet he has been among the price bears for most of 2018 and has said that Bitcoin could even fall to $1,300 before going higher. To be fair, he is a big believer in the long-term future of Bitcoin and blockchain technology. However, he is forecasting lower prices and has recently made a public bet for $10,000 with fellow YouTuber Doug Polk predicting that the price of Bitcoin would fall below $6,000 before the end of 2019. So far, Tone is closer to winning that bet.
Just last week, Nicholas Merten (Data Dash) posted a tweet calling for $50,000 Bitcoin in 2018. He has since followed up with a video providing more detail behind his reasoning but among the biggest catalysts for the price rise would be a Bitcoin ETF. I would agree that news of an ETF would cause a spike in price and have also predicted we would see an ETF this year. He also included some geopolitical and economic catalysts that could send prices higher. However, would these events trigger a rally that sends prices almost 600% higher than current levels?
Node Investor – While I have not come out with a definite price prediction for 2018, I did post a video in March outlining why Bitcoin could bottom in April and reach new highs this year. (https://nodeinvestor.us15.list-manage.com/track/click?u=6f8949842c816a78ea94026e3&id=ed462a22da&e=a034975b15)
Ultimately, I’m in the camp calling for higher prices (no surprise there!) and I expect to see a re-test of the highs later this year. Ultimately, I see Bitcoin prices making new highs and going well beyond $20,000. However, it’s anyone’s guess if that happens in 2018.
The long-term price predictions vary significantly. Kenneth Rogoff, former IMF chief economist said it’s likely that Bitcoin will go down to $100 within 10 years and be worth just a fraction of what it is today. Warren Buffet & Charlie Munger also believe it will be worthless someday. On the other hand, Tim Draper predicts that we'll see $250,000 Bitcoin someday, Cameron Winklevoss expects $320,000 within 10 years and Bobby Lee of BTCC exchange predicts $1 million Bitcoin within 20 years.
With the pullback we've seen from the highs this year, the odds favor that in the long run, Bitcoin prices will be much higher than they are today.
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