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cryptosimplify
@cryptosimplify
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2020-07-23 12:37
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cryptosimplify
CineTV
4y
RE: Film Review: Purple Hearts
The end it is predictable but it was nice to see a fake relationship becomes a true thing.
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LeoFinance
4y
RE: LeoThread 0.6
30/20 It’s definitely not an energy driven crisis, but this will be a real impediment to a healthy recovery and compound the other macro problems noted above.
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LeoFinance
4y
RE: LeoThread 0.6
29/20 By that time the unemployment data… Could be hideous and lead to a recessionary snowball.
cryptosimplify
LeoFinance
4y
RE: LeoThread 0.6
28/20 I therefore believe that this bear market rally won’t last into Q4 as the impacts of rates rising, QT and energy prices all collide together Q1 2023 you’ll see a cold winter plus high rates mean
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LeoFinance
4y
RE: LeoThread 0.6
27/20 to go further and/or solidify his win in East Ukraine w/ a puppet government and (2) Putin will try to tie energy sales to removing the sanctions, which the West won’t want to look weak on.
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LeoFinance
4y
RE: LeoThread 0.6
26/20 My base case is no end until at least Q2 2023 as (1) the Sep referendum in East Ukraine will likely embolden Putin as he claims a mandate…
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LeoFinance
4y
RE: LeoThread 0.6
25/20 The only way to slow down the pain is a resolution to the Russia/Ukraine war and for Russia to agree to fully restart energy sales.
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LeoFinance
4y
RE: LeoThread 0.6
24/20 But this is not just a ‘Europe problem’ since energy costs will skyrocket globally, and we’ll see higher prices passed on to consumers and layoffs mount as businesses cease to be profitable.
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LeoFinance
4y
RE: LeoThread 0.6
23/20 LNG prices are now 5x higher! This has led to soaring prices in fertilizer, glass, steel, metals and ceramics. EU this winter will be in huge trouble as businesses and individuals struggle to afford
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LeoFinance
4y
RE: LeoThread 0.6
22/20
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LeoFinance
4y
RE: LeoThread 0.6
21/20 The June fire at the Freeport liquefaction facility in Texas will take facilities down for 90 days adding further pressure on global access. Unfortunately it’s all connected…
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LeoFinance
4y
RE: LeoThread 0.6
20/20 Due to this war situation US is now 15% of EU’s supply since new contracts were assigned to start to remove some dependency from Russia.
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LeoFinance
4y
RE: LeoThread 0.6
19/20 EU imports are already up 50% in the summer months and could be at the ~200% level in the winter.
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LeoFinance
4y
RE: LeoThread 0.6
18/20 KNOCK ON EFFECTS The problem with the LNG shortage is that the supply shock will be (partly) filled by Australia, Qatar and the US as big LNG exporters.
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LeoFinance
4y
RE: LeoThread 0.6
17/20 FRANCE Only 9% total exposure to Russian energy, but that’s because they have big nuclear energy output. EDF is struggling operationally, leading to multi-decade low energy output pushing French
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LeoFinance
4y
RE: LeoThread 0.6
16/20 UK UK it is the only European country that does not have energy dependencies from Russia since they import from Norway, US and Qatar.
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LeoFinance
4y
RE: LeoThread 0.6
15/20 POLAND Although 39% of its energy comes from Russia and Russia already cut them off once, it’s access to gas is relatively stable due to having an LNG terminal running at full capacity.
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LeoFinance
4y
RE: LeoThread 0.6
14/20 BELGIUM Only 2% of LNG from Russia but imports 36% of its coal, 67% of its oil (35% of total energy) from them so quite exposed in other areas.
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LeoFinance
4y
RE: LeoThread 0.6
13/20 NETHERLANDS 35% of their natural gas is imported from Russia. Used to be a large exporter at Groningen but was hit by earthquakes and now down 90% on production levels. Also adds costs on Dutch farmer
cryptosimplify
LeoFinance
4y
RE: LeoThread 0.6
12/20 FINLAND Finland imports 100% oil, 68% gas and 31% coal from Russia. Russia already turned off the exportation to Finland when they announced the intention to join NATO. Finland will need to talk
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